I've mentioned them before.

Given that I have yet to see ANY construction of ANY urea marketing equipment (even displays inside shops and/or truckstops) I wonder just how "available" this stuff is going to be when it's needed. It's 9 months and counting down to the "deadline." Most places need six months or better to even PLAN the installs, much less get around to doing it.

The systems MAY work well in operations that have a home base that the trucks come back to every night, and where the trucks are fully serviced by a shop staff on a daily or weekly basis; local P/D operations come to mind. Or other operations where the DRIVER will not have to deal with the DEF equipment.

Long-haul, OTR operations, especially one-truck outfits run by cash-strapped Owner Operators, will have to have this technology forcibly rammed down their throats. The operators will not want to pay for it. Freight margins do not currently support the extra expense involved with DEF or it's associated engine components.

With company trucks, the first time the DRIVER has to pay for fluids to keep his COMPANY truck running (that he's otherwise not legally responsible for in any way), he'll limp it back to the yard and throw the keys at the dispatcher. Or leave it on the side of the road. Companies do not currently allow additives to be purchased on company fuel cards, and I do not believe they will allow that change in the future. The reason why companies do not allow purchase of addtives is because there's far too much potential for fraud (i.e. theft).

"It's worked well in Europe" is not an acceptable reason for success in the United States. Europe has a completely different regulatory environment that addresses both company driver and freight issues, that does not exist in the United States trucking environment. The TECHNOLOGY may work well, but the problem is that it is USER-INTERVENTION-REQUIRED. THAT'S what's going to blow up in the industry's face. The American Trucker isn't going to want to have anything to do with this. IMHO.

-blaine

 

Nothing against you Blaine but that is just pure laziness on the truckers part to not be able to keep the urea tank where it needs to be. As long as the trucks have a gauge to tell you when you need to fill up it really shouldn't be a problem so long as the infrastructure is there.

 

Yup. The new Dodges will tell you when your starting to run low on urea a long time before you actually run out. If you run out, then its your own fault.

 

Petro, Pilot and TA have already announced their plans to offer it in some form or another in all of their locations.

The fact that certain fleets won't allow additives to be purchased on fuel cards will have to change. It will cost the fleet much more in the long run if they don't change this philosophy. The largest fleets are already on board with this technology. If the others want to survive, they will adapt.

The most obvious advantage is that 5 of the top 6 OEMs and a major engine OEM will use this technology. If it were 50% or less, I might be worried.

Driver intervention isn't any different than adding windshield washer fluid, which will be about as often.

 

Truckstop personnel don't have a clue as to what DEF even *IS*, much less if they'll sell it. At least the ones I've talked to so far. I have fired off an e-mail to the person who wrote the announcement for Petro and TA. We'll see what the response is.

Fuel card theft costs them a significant amount of money. Drivers will buy unneeded additives at company expense and then sell them for pocket money. I watched it happen on a daily and weekly basis when I was a company driver at Swift.

Additionally, the largest fleets HAVE yards in most major cities that FORCE the driver to go through a company shop service lane before entering (or perhaps leaving) the company yard.

More than likely, they will be forced to keep the 2010 technology on dedicated runs with dedicated drivers who are already used to this due to test runs being conducted over the last 3 years. The lonter interstate runs will be shifted over to older technology that's not so demanding.

What will "have to change" is the driver pool. After a rash of layoffs from theft, they'll be left with a 20% smaller pool of drivers.

They have no choice. It's the only effective way to meet the ridiculously STOOPID standards set by the EPA. The only way Navistar is getting away w/o using it is to cash in on credits.

How do you figure? A small sample of drivers I know said they rarely replace the fluid. I only add wiper fluid every six months or so. It's just not that used. Even in the winter, fighting more road salt than a salt mine, I only add it every two months. I don't see how your supposition holds.

-blaine

 

Getting back to this, what size is the urea filler hole? I assume its impossible to put the big 1.25"(?) high flow diesel nozzle in it but would the smaller nozzles at the consumer islands fit? The unleaded gas nozzle?

 

Navistar spokespeople have said their credits will run out in about 2 years. The story they are giving is they still have to be a good deal cleaner than 2007 standards by January 2010, will phase into the 2010 limits by the time their credits run out and will do it without SCR.

 

The only way it will backfire is if everyone has the same level of pessimism that Blaine has. Some of his arguements are noteworthy, but all have solution. I have 4 trucks running 7500 miles/week and they only fill their DEF tank once each week.

I have word that Navistar has been buying large amounts of DEF from my supplier lately. My supplier is 90% positive they are working on Plan B.

 

One thing I can see coming perhaps is that the whole DEF "procedural changes" will be the final push that certain parts of the industry have been looking for, for years.

That is, the "death" or "elimination" of long-haul trucking routes -- routes over 500-600 miles or so. Freight that must go longer distances will be put on rail (since it's already in an ISO container), or will be broken down till it will be able to fit into an ISO container, and then put on rail (I watched this happen with a road grader last month; an absolute cluster-****).

"Worst case" is that larger companies will "shuttle" trailers 500-600 miles at a time with local trucks running back-to-back trailer swaps (Swift already does this). Shuttle routes provide team-level service when it comes to speed, but don't use team drivers -- thus covering concerns on time-sensitive cargo like foodstuffs and medicines.

Of course, this "solution" doesn't address the fact that at least last year, the rails were running at over 98% of capacity. And increases in rail capacity require the approval of the US Congress.

I'd LIKE to be proven wrong on any, or all, of this. But the same "gut feeling" that's telling me that DEF will be a debacle is the same "gut feeling" that told me the stock market was gonna crash. *shrug* Time will tell, I suppose.

-blaine

 

Trains, of course, being exempt from emissions controls.

 

Nope, their time is coming. Tier 3 will introduce engine-based emissions controls in 2011, Tier 4 will introduce exhaust aftertreatment in 2015.