Is there a recession?

If you think so, why?

If not, why?

And, what are the chances of heading into a depression?

Thoughts?

 

Seems like fewer housing starts here, I was in Waikiki last week and there seemed to be fewer tourists.
People are not doing too many remodels and additions also, work is slower than it was 2-3 years ago.
I think the economy will slow, but not depress.

Oil has to go down in price, and the dollar has to keep pace with the Yen and Euro.

I have to spend less personally, the price for gasoline is getting rough on my budget. I have to drive a Mazda B2200 to work to be able to eat!

 

I'f you have no money. Then yes its a recession

 

I'd almost call that a depression.

 

It's a recession if your neighbor is having a tough time. It's a depression if you are having a tough time. You decide.

I've cut back on my traveling and my discretionary spending. Every facet of my household budget, from heating oil to food and auto insurance, has risen in price. No one is cutting us any breaks.

If we're not at the wall yet, we're mighty close. We're kidding ourselves if we think the price of oil will come down. Too much use and not enough production.

Time to stock up on ammo and nonperishable food. Walking more is a great way to stay healthy.

 

They'll tell us when there's a recession; and we'll like it.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters that are negative in growth, so far, that hasn't happened. technically.

New story from a UK paper, about Bear Stearns;

I see the Bank of England plays the same role as the FED in the US.

I just can't believe how the majority still believe the Federal Reserve is the savior, when they're really the sole cause of the financial situation the US is in right now and since it's inception, every financial downturn there has ever been.

They make a bank fall on it's face then print 50 or so Billion dollars to lend to that bank to 'bail' it out and get it back on it's feet.

It's like saying 'In order to remove the knife from your belly, you must twist it and thrust it upwards in a sawing fasion then hold the knife straight out while repeatedly running into a solid object such as a brick wall, repeat until unconscious.'

 

Right now, if we aren't, then we will be very soon. You would think that our government would have learned from history and never let this type of situation ever happen again. I just don't get it.

 

Conspiracy theorists would tell us that it's all a plot to rob us of our financial means to survive and make us powerless and completely dependent upon The Corporation (government? same thing) for our daily needs.

With the growing illegal population and our dependence upon cheap trade goods from China, I can certainly see where that line of thinking comes from. It's not much of a stretch.

Look at the Trans Texas corridor and the abominable outsourcing of so many jobs. I just don't see how a burgeoning consumer economy can survive without the disposable income to support it.

 

the 8-10 builders that we sell hardwood flooring to have been sitting idle for 6-9 months.

however, remodeling is up

 

Come to michigan.
Everyday i drive home i am looking at the front of every house on the block to see if there is another forclosure Notice posted on Another house.Last count on my street was 13 houses.
This is not good

 

JFK was the last president to stand up against the real Powers That Be and they shut him up. Nobody else with enough power to matter has had the ***** to stand up to them since. What they learned is to not mess with the NWO.

 

Foreclosers are going to hurt the banks more than help in the long run. Each and every home they forclose on, they won't be able to sell, unless for alot less. And homes could be on the market for a year or better. Banks are not making ANY money during that time. So, Banks are really risking forclosing on a home during this point in time. But, that's just my own opinion. And no, it's not good when that many homes are being forclosed on.

 

The smart banks, that knew what was going on, sold the mortgages to investment brokers, the people that bought into those investments lost the most as they have no recourse. Not to worry, the international bankers will come in and buy everything up... or as they put it; "offer relief".

 

Yes, I believe we probably are in a recession. I was a bit more optimistic up until a few weeks ago, now it seems the news just keeps getting worse.

I just read this article in the paper yesterday: U.S. in recession, top researcher says

'Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the group that dates business cycles in the U.S., said the nation has entered a recession that could be the worst since World War II."

 

"So, Banks are really risking forclosing on a home during this point in time. But, that's just my own opinion. And no, it's not good when that many homes are being forclosed on."

I strongly agree. Many people who bought houses on ARMs would still live in and pay a mortgage they could afford, and the bank has discretion to renegotiate the mortgage and continue to make money.

"With the growing illegal population and our dependence upon cheap trade goods from China, I can certainly see where that line of thinking comes from. It's not much of a stretch.

Look at the Trans Texas corridor and the abominable outsourcing of so many jobs. I just don't see how a burgeoning consumer economy can survive without the disposable income to support it."

Chinas expansion and inflation rate are going to make it less competitive, and the influx of cheap labor plus the weakening dollar will eventually make US labor competitive worldwide. Our wages and standard of living after WWII were a unique case historically, and as the world caught up were never going to be sustainable.

The flip side is that US agricultural production feeds a lot of the world (and prices are rising, so the world is going to have to suck it up!) and the switch to biofuels is driving them higher (makes me smile, FTW, let them pay US for a change). Our exports are becoming more and more competitive, and there is no inherent reason we cannot rebuild industries we need vs clinging to our obsolete manufacturing in the doomed Rust Belt. (NuCor, for example, is busy building competitive steel mills.)

The current situation is necessary to drive the economic changes and energy changes we need to compete, because no way it was ever going to happen voluntarily. These things happen every few years, so the best advice is to spend your life carefully preparing to cover your ***.