these trucks are expensive enough, without adding 15k$ ( about what a F350 6.7 costs after interest over 6 years and no ESP ) my XLT 6.2 F250 is just fine..
ANY any spreadsheet showing the 6.7 is cheaper over the long run, cant account for all the variables - including ESP is almost a must with the 6.7..

 

I used to be a huge diesel fan. In the mid 2000s I thought it was a terrible idea to get a superduty if it wasn't a diesel. My first super duty was a 2002 5.4 gas because at the time i couldn't afford the diesel, but after that I only got diesels for a while. Since 2006 I have owned 8 of them(still have 3 in the driveway) 5 of them diesel and 3 gas powered. I have since changed my mind after doing multiple thorough cost analysis of cost of ownership, and as a business the bottom line is all that matters. And it wasn't even close.. AT ALL. I tow up to 15k all the time for my business and when I first started the diesel seemed to be needed, although it is not now thanks to the 6.2. I never see myself owning another diesel unless I fall into a lot of money and saving money doesnt matter to me, because I'll be honest, that diesel power and the way they run is intoxicating.

By the way, I still have that 2002 f250 5.4. 222k miles of HARD labor and by far the best truck I've ever had. We call it "ol' reliable", it's always ready to go when the diesels are taking everything in my wallet to be fixed

 

I ran the numbers years ago with diesel at $.40 more a gallon and figuring getting 5 MPG better than the gas and it was nearly a wash on cost per mile driven. The kicker was cost of the diesel and additional maintenance costs. I went with a V10 back then and have had 13 trouble free years out of it, it had death wobble and a fuel filling issue that was all covered under warranty. Other than that I've put tires on it and a battery once, just this summer I would up having to do some work on the air conditioning, all of those items could also have happened to a diesel, so no real difference there.

Now the thing I've noticed is that everyone I talk to with a diesel absolutely loves them and says they would not own anything else. But they also have to work on their trucks...and everything they have to do is expensive. Doesn't seem to matter the manufacturer either, they all seem to have problems, expensive ones.

I've had several gasser Fords for work and have had no problems with any of them, so I just bought an 18 with you guessed it, a 6.2L gasser. It was a no brainer. I also had the dealer try to talk me into a diesel, but I didn't want anything to do with it. I did the 3.73 gears although I wanted the 4.30s. The salesman said they only do the 4.30s on diesel dually type trucks. I'm not disappointed, but I've not towed with it yet either. I would have probably insisted on the 4.30s if I ordered it, but since I bought one they had I figured it wasn't worth waiting and paying more for a different one.

Here's to hoping I get all those trouble free years out of it that I've had with my 05. I'm keeping the 05 BTW because, why sell a perfect truck! In fact, the only reason I bought the new one is the wife wanted the full 4 doors the older Supercab can never have. So I have to admit, my new one will be a bit of a garage queen for the first part of it's life. To be honest, my 05 was too!

 

I have not seen a $.40 fuel differential in years. Around where I'm at, it's about $1/gallon more to buy diesel; and it's been like that for a few years now. Today where I'm at, gas is $2.19 and diesel is $3.29, so that 'fuel savings" based on mileage is washed away easily.

It bears repeating, every single time, regarding this topic today
1) if you plan to pull more than 15,000 pounds (the gas/4.30 gear tow limit), then you NEED a diesel.
2) if you drive about 30,000 miles or more every single year, the diesel can eventually save enough fuel to break even after about 7-8 years, but don't forget about the very expensive maintenance costs and unplanned extra costs related to the grossly more complicated engine ...
3) if you simply WANT a diesel, so that your testicular sack swells with ego, well ... that's on you. Nothing wrong with spending your hard earned money where you see fit. But it's not a "smart" decision if those above condition don't exist in your use.

I just visited my buddy for deer hunting this past weekend. He bought a 2016 6.7L because he just "had to have one". Here it is two years later, and it's parked in his barn to be used rarely. Seems the tales I told him of it being a bad daily commuter, eating up expensive fuel and all that extra routine maintenance expense, turned out to be true. So he got a used Accord 4-cyl and loves the car. He just had to learn the hard way. Diesel trucks are for working hard; not daily goofing off. He did spend some time admiring my 2018 gasser!

 

^^^ This pretty much sums it up completely. Should be a sticky in the superduty section. Required read for anyone thinking about buying a F250 or 350 truck.

 

Except perhaps that, at current prices, there will NEVER be a fuel payback. It will cost more.

 

 

 

Part of the difficulty in figuring this out is the reality of 10 years worth of unpredictable value into the future. I'm going to use NADA valuations as a guide. KBB are similar. I am addressing the engine options, not the overall truck's value.
Examples:
For the 2006 model year, consider the three major brands and their diesel engine options ....
Ford's 6.0L cost nearly $6000 as an option, but it only returns $3500 at trade in time today. This is because in today's terms, we understand the 6.0L was a big problem. Back in 2006, that was not understood well. (it loses nearly 50% of it's value to depreciation)
GM's 6.6L cost about $6500 as an option, but it returns about $5500 at trade in time today. The LBZ Dmax is one of the most coveted; very reliable, so it holds it's value well.
Dodge 5.9L cost about $6000 as an option, but it returns nearly all of it; about $5500+ today. The Cummins holds it's value well; probably the best of the three.

Back in 2006, the 7.3L was a recent memory, but a darn good one. It was well respected. And so sales people leveraged the reputation of the 7.3L onto the 6.0L and said "Hey - it's a PowerStroke; of course you'll get good trade in for it; it's an investment!" But reality didn't pan out that way. The trucks hold up well, but the 6.0L not so much ... In today's terms, that 12 year old truck with a 6.0L is not valued well. In fact, what's really coveted now are the 6.8L engines.
The Duramax was just the opposite; it's first generation had a lot of injector issues, and so the 6.6L in 2006 was a bit of a gamble. But that gamble paid off well, as the 3rd gen Dmax (LBZ) is probably the pinnacle of reliability for it's lineage. (pre-DPF and pre-regen).
The Cummins was also pre-DPF, and a known good engine bet overall.


So, to be fair, it's really hard to say what a 2018 model year 6.7L engine is going to be worth 10 years from now. Will it return most of it's $9500 price tag? Probably not. But not because of the engine itself; more likely to loose value due to the ancillary diesel related stuff like DPF filters that will need replaced, EGR coolers that need replaced, etc. I think 10 years from now an owner of a diesel will be lucky to get back 50%, if not less, of his investment. Add in the massive fuel cost difference, and there's very little reason to buy one.

 

Wow, very well thought out and great explanation Dnewton3!!!

 

the 6.7 powerstrokes sound like cars now

 

I will add this, too, to my comments a few posts above regarding future valuations of diesel engines ...

Like I said, it's hard to predict what the future will offer us for a diesel engine option. In today's terms, we look at 10 year old diesel engines and there's not a lot to get excited about. The 6.4L PSD is not really well liked. The LMM Dmax is known to have issues. Same for the 6.7L Cummins. Why? Because these were the first generation of their respective lines to forge into the DPF world. The diesel engines from that era are not holding their value well, as a percentage of their initial cost.

Diesel engines from 2001 to 2006 (with the noted exception of the 6.0L PSD) hold their value reasonably well because they ended up being fairly reliable and reasonably powerful. Diesels from 2007-2011 were painfully affected by the new learning curve of the DPF introductions. Nowadays, after several years of that learning curve being worn away, the engines are not horribly affected. But ... what happens with a brand new 2018 diesel engine ages into 2028; 10 years from now??? It's my suspicion that the DPFs, the EGR coolers, etc all will be a decade old and have high failure rates. This will drive the cost of ownership up later in the vehicle's life, and then drive the value down as a percentage of the initial purchase cost of the diesel engine option.

Simply put, what was true 10 years ago isn't likely to be true 10 years from now. Back when you bought a 7.3L PSD, or a LBZ Dmax, or a 5.9L Cummins, it was a good bet that it would be reliable and hold it's value well, in terms of what you could expect back at trade-in time. But today, I doubt you'll come anywhere close to recouping much of the $10,000 you pay for a diesel. Not because the engine itself is an issue, but all the ancillary stuff on it. And because the EPA is cracking down on companies that offer tunes and mods that "delete" stuff, that too will be a thing of the past. Ten years from now, when you have 185k miles on your truck, you'll likely be looking at having to replace a DPF (or at least have it cleaned), possibly an EGR cooler replaced, and at some point, all the cooling hoses, etc. A 6.7L Ford diesel engine has a LOT of feet of cooling hoses! It has two separate cooling loops for goodness sake! As those age, they have to be replaced at some point (true of all vehicles). But when you contrast a 6.2L gas engine to the 6.7L diesel, you'll note that there is just a LOT more stuff to go wrong 10-15 years from now. That will eat away at the residual value of your diesel engine investment made in today's dollars. The reason diesel engines from 15 years ago hold their value well is because they are both reliable and simple to fix. That's not probably going to be true of today's diesels 15 years from now.

Again - if you tow some really, really heavy stuff, you flat out need a diesel. Or, if you drive an insane amount of annual miles, where the increased fuel economy can pay you back sooner than your loan note matures, you could make a diesel pay back the ROI.
Other than those two conditions, diesel engines today are not really a wise investment.

What was true of years gone by is unlikely to be true a decade into the future. This is because of two simple realities:
1) diesel engine packages are not likely to be as reliable years from now and/or the increased complexity resultant maintenance costs will eat you alive
2) the cost of fuel differential makes the ROI elude most folks reasonable payback terms
The day of getting back all or most of your diesel dollar is gone.
So if you cannot save the money in the increased fuel efficiency by driving a LOT of miles annually, it's just a fools choice.

 

I've posted this before but will repeat in this thread. Several months ago there were two 2016 F250's (used) at the Ford dealership. Both XLT's, very similarly equipped, both had mid-20K odometers; one a diesel and one gas. There was $4K difference in asking price. Whoever paid the extra $9K for the diesel had already eaten $5K in extra expense in just 2 years of ownership. The myth about getting all your money back on a diesel is just that; a myth. And with gas at $2.05 and diesel at $2.99, there is no fuel savings either. So, diesel only makes sense if you haul over 15K or 12K+ on a daily basis.

 

I've said this same thing here and other places. I've even posted links to two trucks at the same dealer showing the exact situation you described. I've been told how dumb I was, told to compare 5.4's to 7.3's and how I had to settle for a 6.2. I'll end up with the last laugh on that. I bought my truck at a good time and got what I would consider a good deal. Not counting taxes, fees and mods, I could trade my truck in right now and only lose 6-7k. Not bad for near 3 years of ownership. I have a very mod friendly dealer, so I could probably recoup some of that money. Not that it's going anywhere.

 

Ordered a new F250 Lariat CCSB with 6.2 and 4.30 axles yesterday! Silver Spruce, the classy color! No more diesel for me either. Just isn't any justification for a diesel for me.