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You are going to find out that in cold weather its going to regen every 500 miles just like mine has been doing, makes it very easy to predict. Ive been saying for awhile if you are using that dpf% screen to catch your regens you will be way off base. It is also not a good gauge in summer if you tow alot as the dpf% will drop as you build exhaust temps while working it hard and it will use either the soot gpl or mileage to trigger the regen. Im saying this because I beleive people are thinking that dpf% screen is the end all gauge to monitor for regens and it is not.
I agree. I have sworn off looking at the DPF screen. Thinking of grabbing an Edge CS2.
Just like the OP has noted, the truck's dashboard DPF% gauge will get to 95% full, then finally get to 99% full and a regen will commence. However, it sometimes also regens based upon mileage.
The truck will definitely regen in cold weather. Mine commenced a regen this past Tuesday, at -17F. I had not been on the highway for more than 5 minutes and truck's coolant gauge was no where near the halfway point. Oil temps were at 160F. At the time, my DPF gauge read 65% full and I did not bother to let it finish...just shut it down. I think it lowered the gauge to 55% full.
Just drive your truck and let it do it's job. Don't overthink the whole DPF/regen thing. The only thing that's going to risk potential issues with DPF/regen process is if you do a hell of a lot of short distances drives and very little or no longer distances driving.