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I can't see it getting that low. The US wells will shut down before it hit's $30. It used to cost in the $25 - $30 range to get it out of the ground a couple of decades ago.
it averaged that price through the 90s and early 2000s. they base their costs to produce on the current cost of operation (ie $4 diesel). they do the same on the market. the price of gas may drop $.40 on the market, but if it jumps back up the following day/week, we never see a difference at the pump since they trade futures.
if the price falls to ~$30 level and holds, the cost of everything will readjust and the USA will be in a better place.
Originally Posted by binuya
It's my understanding that this is all due to OPEC flooding the market to deliberately drive down crude prices in order to choke out North American production. I'm curious as to how long this will last, how low it will go, and the resulting blowback.
that was always the problem a few years ago. Notice, you do not hear much about OPEC any more.
the main reasons:
1.) Saudi Arabia
2.) Texas and N. Dakota
5 years ago, the USA averaged 5 million barrels/day production. Today, it is close to 9.
i live just south of lake charles, la and around here most of it ranges from 2.69 to 3.59 depending on the where you get it. But im lucky that a store just a mile down the road is cheapest around and for past few week ive been filling up for 2.49, gas at 2.19. Im loving this..... its not so much that the saudis are flooding the market, its just that with higher prices for so long we developed fields that could be profitable at those prices and thus WE are adding to the market. Typically the saudis would cut back on production to restrict supply and stablize the prices, but this time they arent, they are maintaining production in attempt to drive price down where all the new fields in the US are not profitable anymore, we shall see where it all goes. its kind of double edged sword, i like low fuel prices, but i like putting folks to work as well and lately there has been a oil boom, sure would hate to see it collapse....
that was always the problem a few years ago. Notice, you do not hear much about OPEC any more.
True, but they're still significant producers. But with domestic shale production at a profitability level at around $60/barrel, it sure seems like they could have an effect.
it averaged that price through the 90s and early 2000s. they base their costs to produce on the current cost of operation (ie $4 diesel). they do the same on the market. the price of gas may drop $.40 on the market, but if it jumps back up the following day/week, we never see a difference at the pump since they trade futures.
if the price falls to ~$30 level and holds, the cost of everything will readjust and the USA will be in a better place.
that was always the problem a few years ago. Notice, you do not hear much about OPEC any more.
the main reasons:
1.) Saudi Arabia
2.) Texas and N. Dakota
5 years ago, the USA averaged 5 million barrels/day production. Today, it is close to 9.
But cost getting it out of the ground isn't decided by futures. Buying and disposing of the water used in fracking, along with labor, leases, equipment, etc. do factor into the cost of getting it out of the ground.
I would say we're in a better place already, but I'm kind of upset that the station I filled up at this morning dropped the price per gallon 9¢ a couple of hours later.
But cost getting it out of the ground isn't decided by futures. Buying and disposing of the water used in fracking, along with labor, leases, equipment, etc. do factor into the cost of getting it out of the ground.
I would say we're in a better place already, but I'm kind of upset that the station I filled up at this morning dropped the price per gallon 9¢ a couple of hours later.
agreed.
however, when you consider factors that have a tremendous effect on our economy, fuel prices dominate. the cost of drilling isn't decided by futures, but they still make money since the health of the companies are.
True, but they're still significant producers. But with domestic shale production at a profitability level at around $60/barrel, it sure seems like they could have an effect.
I have read that domestic shale production is possibly profitable at as low as $40/barrel.
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