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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 01:54 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by solidstate
I guess the point I'm trying to make is simply, the cost of electricity is increasing, and in a big way, this is why I "cherry picked" the chart, in order to put emphasis on that point. I'm glad you brought up Europe, 400% increase is terrible. But as you've brought it up, the Europeans laughed at a former US President when he told them what would happen if they got on the Russian energy tit, this is Not political, it was in front of the UN, televised worldwide, just historical fact.
Here we go, dragging politics into things. It's been the position of the US for over a decade that they shouldn't be dependent on gas from Russia. We have been exporting gas to Europe as fast as our infrastructure permits, which is the primary reason gas and electric prices are higher on our side of the pond.

Just like we were talking about previously, it's about natural gas generation. States like Mass, NH, and Maine are more dependent on gas to fuel their power generation, so they are shouldering the steepest cost increases. Each state handles things very differently, and 2023 rates aren't available for many of them. One good article about Georgia suggests their rates may increase 15% next year, but you can see in the article all of the reasons behind it. They have to pay for higher fuel costs for coal and gas plants, two new nuke plants that have turned into costly boondoggles, and other things. It's a complicated thing without a single cause, just like in Massachusetts.

But just like the pickup owner in Massachusetts, the same hypothetical guy in Georgia will be paying less if it's powered by electricity than gasoline.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom
Here we go, dragging politics into things. It's been the position of the US for over a decade that they shouldn't be dependent on gas from Russia. We have been exporting gas to Europe as fast as our infrastructure permits, which is the primary reason gas and electric prices are higher on our side of the pond.

Just like we were talking about previously, it's about natural gas generation. States like Mass, NH, and Maine are more dependent on gas to fuel their power generation, so they are shouldering the steepest cost increases. Each state handles things very differently, and 2023 rates aren't available for many of them. One good article about Georgia suggests their rates may increase 15% next year, but you can see in the article all of the reasons behind it. They have to pay for higher fuel costs for coal and gas plants, two new nuke plants that have turned into costly boondoggles, and other things. It's a complicated thing without a single cause, just like in Massachusetts.

But just like the pickup owner in Massachusetts, the same hypothetical guy in Georgia will be paying less if it's powered by electricity than gasoline.
Your point regarding the cost to charge in MA or GA being less than the cost to purchase gas (cost/mile/fuel cost) I'm sure is true, if you are charging at home, I don't know what it would be if you are purchasing at one of the "soon to be a million" charging stations. I'm comparing purchasing gasoline away from home to purchasing electricity away from home. There is no doubt if you are always staying within charging distance of your garage at home, your fuel cost would be less (per mile), but if not, you'll be purchasing electricity from a 2nd party seller-they're only in it for the money. But once again, my point is, the cost of electricity is not static, just as we saw the price of gasoline skyrocket in 2022, we may see the same thing with electricity, I've always seems as if that old law of supply and demand just keeps on working.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 03:10 PM
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That’s very true about supply and demand. But an impairment difference between electricity and oil is how elastic the supply is.

It’s a heckuva lot easier to stand up power generation capacity than it is to develop, transport, refine, transport, and store gasoline. None of this massive switch in propulsion method can happen overnight, and utility companies seem to be building out their networks to deal with this. And the best part is how the generation methods they are building out aren’t subject to the whims of global energy markets.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom
It’s a heckuva lot easier to stand up power generation capacity than it is to develop, transport, refine, transport, and store gasoline.
Perhaps I am wrong, but in order to provide more power via existing infrastructure to a city, town, neighborhood or home, I would suspect a decent amount of labor and materials would be involved.

Everything from changing out wood poles for steel towers, more linemen, more employees at the power station or dam, upgraded or more transformers, bigger or more substations, larger or more cables overhead and underground.

Are those inline with your thoughts on "standing up power generation"?
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Sous
Perhaps I am wrong, but in order to provide more power via existing infrastructure to a city, town, neighborhood or home, I would suspect a decent amount of labor and materials would be involved.

Everything from changing out wood poles for steel towers, more linemen, more employees at the power station or dam, upgraded or more transformers, bigger or more substations, larger or more cables overhead and underground.

Are those inline with your thoughts on "standing up power generation"?
Sure, but it’s not as daunting as some would have us believe. The current system is designed to provide enough power for peak loads during certain times of the day, which is why it hasn’t been a big deal to support EV charging that primarily occurs later on. The bulk of EV charging will likely happen overnight, which isn’t when people are running their A/C, workday systems, manufacturing, etc. I’m sure more infrastructure will ultimately be required, but we have lots of time, and it’s going to be a gradual shifting that power companies should be able to adapt to. There’s a reason why you don’t hear power companies raising alarm bells over this. This is a decent op-ed published by the Union of Concerned Scientists that goes into better detail.

Oil, coal, and gas are all fungible. We have lots of them, but most nations don’t. The fact that we can transport all of them means power generation from these sources will always be susceptible to global market swings. See the current gas price spike which is largely due to our massively expanding exports to Europe. Solar panels, wind turbines, nuclear, and energy storage technologies being aggressively rolled out aren’t susceptible to any of that. Solidstate referenced Wyoming as a state which has had a power decline over the last year. What changed that might cause this decrease? A massive expansion in wind power.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 07:37 PM
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Yes, it is time consuming to drill, refine and deliver, just at it takes time to build electric generation, and the grid to handle it, but we should remember, it only takes a couple of minutes-if that much, to say NO. We had energy independence in the US, but when some of our politicos said, NO, we were and are forced to import oil!!! The communists in Venezuela don't mind selling us oil, as the political refugees from Venezuela pour across our border, we are funding a communist country, Iran doesn't mind selling us oil, even Russia didn't mind, but here we are, no longer pumping our own, buying it from outside the US, with the structure INPLACE to deliver to the end user, If we heard a few Simple YES's, we'd be back to energy independence in very short order. A good example of needing to use common sense happened in CA within the last 6 months. CA had scheduled their last Nuclear Power Plant for decommissioning, but, once they realized how much power they needed and will need in the near future, they [the govt in Ca] decided to get an extension to the decommissioning! Decisions can be made, just like the extension to the decommissioning, that would stop our money flowing out of the country and reducing the cost of fossil fuel (thus everything that is shipped would cost less) in a few minutes. The distribution structure is already here.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom
Sure, but it’s not as daunting as some would have us believe.
Interesting...

Our power is provided by a hydroelectric dam and is managed by an EMC. I am in north GA and have a similar climate as Hawaii, so no shortage of water, rain or electricity like some of the western states are seeing.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by solidstate
Yes, it is time consuming to drill, refine and deliver, just at it takes time to build electric generation, and the grid to handle it, but we should remember, it only takes a couple of minutes-if that much, to say NO. We had energy independence in the US, but when some of our politicos said, NO, we were and are forced to import oil!!! The communists in Venezuela don't mind selling us oil, as the political refugees from Venezuela pour across our border, we are funding a communist country, Iran doesn't mind selling us oil, even Russia didn't mind, but here we are, no longer pumping our own, buying it from outside the US, with the structure INPLACE to deliver to the end user, If we heard a few Simple YES's, we'd be back to energy independence in very short order. A good example of needing to use common sense happened in CA within the last 6 months. CA had scheduled their last Nuclear Power Plant for decommissioning, but, once they realized how much power they needed and will need in the near future, they [the govt in Ca] decided to get an extension to the decommissioning! Decisions can be made, just like the extension to the decommissioning, that would stop our money flowing out of the country and reducing the cost of fossil fuel (thus everything that is shipped would cost less) in a few minutes. The distribution structure is already here.
The trope about energy independence has been false for awhile now. The US is the only worldwide producer who's been able to meaningfully increase our production due to the flexibility we have in the shale sector.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=6129d25230b6

And we've exported more oil in the first half of the year than any point on record:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly...ysis_print.php

Venezuela's oil production is in shambles, they're not exporting much us or anyone else. All this simply means that, counter to political rhetoric, we have always been dependent on the whims of a global oil market. But most new power generation doesn't use these fuels, so going electric is one sure way to ensure a 100% domestically-produced power supply that won't be susceptible to geopolitical risk.
 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 08:57 PM
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And, more relevant to the thread at hand, we are addinga LOT more power generation than we are retiring this year.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53299



 
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Old Sep 25, 2022 | 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom
And, more relevant to the thread at hand, we are addinga LOT more power generation than we are retiring this year.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53299


This is an interesting bar chart-to say the very least! I'm curious, as states have control of their utilities, where this is being added, that would make a Huge Difference. One looking at this data, may be lead to believe no state will need to Import electricity, and if they are still importing, it won't be long before they're just fine!
 
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Old Sep 26, 2022 | 05:41 AM
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Is storing electricity made elsewhere by some means considered production of electricity? "Generating capacity" doesn't seem the same as adding to the wind, solar, hydroelectric, etc. methods of actually making electricity. Do we consider putting gas in a tank as production?

Maybe someday electric cars will be able to do everything gas/diesel vehicles do now. Depends on what you want it to do whether or not it makes sense to own one. Where we live an electric car is great for visiting, shopping, trips to the doctor/dentist, going out to eat, etc. vs. a gas engine car. It doesn't work as well as our gas powered cars for road trips.

I can charge it by plugging it into the charger cord when we come home from some short trip down the road locally. Same meter as my house. I've read, in some countries (always ends up here no matter where it starts) that new hookup at residential housing will have separate meters and some will be controlled over the internet by the government or the power companies (at the request of the government) so they can monitor usage, control time of use, etc. Much easier to control how much you can charge/drive and when that way. Sort of like controlling your internet connected home heating/cooling thermostat as has happened in at least one US state recently.

We plan to keep/use/enjoy our electric car, but I won't be adding an electric truck or another electric car to the garage/carport any time soon.

"Scientific" studies/reports. I would think the last couple years of news (or fake news) about that virus would make people realize science is influenced/controlled by politics and money to a dangerous extent. My grandma said, decades ago, "Don't believe anything you read and only half of what you see."
 
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Old Sep 26, 2022 | 06:28 AM
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Originally Posted by M1A4ME
Is storing electricity made elsewhere by some means considered production of electricity? "Generating capacity" doesn't seem the same as adding to the wind, solar, hydroelectric, etc. methods of actually making electricity. Do we consider putting gas in a tank as production?
I think the idea is around storing solar and wind power that's generated during daylight hours for overnight use. Opponents of solar power will frequently remind us that the sun isn't always shining. Grid-scale battery storage is the response to that. There are a lot of homeowners who have installed battery systems with their solar arrays and live completely off the grid. Take that principle and magnify it to the utility scale, and you can provide power to everyone without using a conventional powerplant.


I've read, in some countries (always ends up here no matter where it starts) that new hookup at residential housing will have separate meters and some will be controlled over the internet by the government or the power companies (at the request of the government) so they can monitor usage, control time of use, etc. Much easier to control how much you can charge/drive and when that way. Sort of like controlling your internet connected home heating/cooling thermostat as has happened in at least one US state recently.
Colorado homeowners were able to opt into a load-management system and let their utility company adjust their thermostat. I have a similar deal here in Minnesota where they pay me $10/mo during the summer months. Nothing mandatory about it, and just like those Colorado residents, I could opt out at any point. Similar programs are being rolled out for EV cars where people can receive discounts for allowing their utility companies to curtail charging during periods of peak demand.

I've never heard of anything like that being mandatory or run by any kind of government agency; the ones I'm familiar with are run by the utility companies.
 
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Old Sep 26, 2022 | 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by M1A4ME
Is storing electricity made elsewhere by some means considered production of electricity?
Speaking of "storing electricity", there was a fire and potential for a catastrophic event. Although, as mentioned above, CA is a rolling dumpster fire most of the time... This time it just happened to be a stationary fire...

Headline: Tesla Megapack Catches Fire At Battery Storage Facility In California

Article link: https://insideevs.com/news/611765/te...rage-facility/


 
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Old Sep 26, 2022 | 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Sous
Speaking of "storing electricity", there was a fire and potential for a catastrophic event. Although, as mentioned above, CA is a rolling dumpster fire most of the time... This time it just happened to be a stationary fire...
Yeah, I read about that last week. Like any new-ish technology, there is a learning curve. The Tesla Powerwall is common in many parts of the country, and is kind of the same principal writ small mounted in someone's home. It's one of the battery backups people use to go off-grid with a solar array. I have solar panels being installed in a few weeks, but can't see the benefits outweighing the cost for something like that. My car has an 1800w V2L capability, and the Lightning will power an entire house for days. I think the usefulness of gasoline-powered backup generators is going to be severely diminished in the coming years.
 
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Old Sep 26, 2022 | 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Tom
Yeah, I read about that last week. Like any new-ish technology, there is a learning curve. The Tesla Powerwall is common in many parts of the country, and is kind of the same principal writ small mounted in someone's home. It's one of the battery backups people use to go off-grid with a solar array. I have solar panels being installed in a few weeks, but can't see the benefits outweighing the cost for something like that. My car has an 1800w V2L capability, and the Lightning will power an entire house for days. I think the usefulness of gasoline-powered backup generators is going to be severely diminished in the coming years.
From what I have seen in reviews, articles and videos, the Tesla Power Wall was a bit of a flop.

The "Lightning will power an entire house for days" intrigues me as the variables can be wide when it comes to a house being powered during an outage or major storm scenario. Are we talking a fridge and deep freezer 24/7 for 3 days? Is a 240v well pump in the calculation when the pressure tank and switch calls for pressure due to the tap being turned on? What about a range/oven or an air conditioner? There are a lot of variables and I am not saying that the "selling point" of the Lightning powering a house for days is not a good one that the same marketing team I mentioned above had a hand in. I am just saying that perhaps one persons entire house power consumption is vastly different than another's.

I get it that a Lightning could power an oscillating fan, cell phone charger and fridge for quite a while, but even when running a 6,500 continuous watt generator on propane or gasoline, we will watch what we "turn on" and for how long.


 
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