Chip shortage future fix
More Turbo
Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 591
Likes: 320
Here is a story from last year that touches on all your points. Decline in US chip manufacturing (only 1 in AZ), huge cost, and yep, government $$$.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/sem...es-2021-05-02/
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/sem...es-2021-05-02/
There are far more fab's than that in the USA. TI has a HUGE one here in Dallas(2 buildings with a 3rd slated to open I think this year) and has bought and is completely renovating one in Salt Lake City. My buddy is an engineer at TI here in Dallas but is very involved in the rebuild out in Salt Lake. I think he said 80 brand new machines at an average cost of 10 million per. Thats a lot of capital.
Tuned
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 483
Likes: 55
I think the manufacturers have backed themselves into corners on production, I’m sure they reward their design engineers to remove costs for example take $1 production cost out of an F150 and they product 900,000 units a year it adds up.
Mountain Pass
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 163
Likes: 59
From: Northern Illinois
just to beat on this drum a little more, by far, not all chips are created equal. The units in our vehicles are fairly simple, fairly easy to make (relative to that world) and robust
Unfortunately, the big money is in phones, pc's, 5G, the cloud and like. The shift has been underway to manufacture these chips at the expense of the lesser pieces of the puzzle
The days of $1 components have turned to $25 or maybe $50, not sure it's that dramatic, but if the market bears...the only way to stop it is to open as many plants we can n a hurry
Unfortunately, the big money is in phones, pc's, 5G, the cloud and like. The shift has been underway to manufacture these chips at the expense of the lesser pieces of the puzzle
The days of $1 components have turned to $25 or maybe $50, not sure it's that dramatic, but if the market bears...the only way to stop it is to open as many plants we can n a hurry
Fleet Mechanic
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 1,641
Likes: 507
From: Phelan CA
I find it mysterious how trucks built outside of the continental US or Canada seem to have no problem showing up at lots.
RAM HD, no shortage.
GM Ford, Nissan, Toyota> OMG!!1!1! we can't get the chips!!!!
Same deal with air conditioning equipment and power inverters in my industry. Mexican/China assembled is easier to acquire.
Some entity is lying, but not really surprised.
RAM HD, no shortage.
GM Ford, Nissan, Toyota> OMG!!1!1! we can't get the chips!!!!
Same deal with air conditioning equipment and power inverters in my industry. Mexican/China assembled is easier to acquire.
Some entity is lying, but not really surprised.
Laughing Gas
Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 888
Likes: 370
It was my understanding that in addition to the chip industry being at a reduced production capacity that some auto manufacturers put a stop on their recurring orders early on in the pandemic. The chip manufacturers found other customers to buy the forfeited production capacity. This put those auto makers at the back of the line and/or looking for new options. I do not have any articles to reference at the moment but maybe someone else does.
Super Moderator
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 13,357
Likes: 6,145
I find it mysterious how trucks built outside of the continental US or Canada seem to have no problem showing up at lots.
RAM HD, no shortage.
GM Ford, Nissan, Toyota> OMG!!1!1! we can't get the chips!!!!
Same deal with air conditioning equipment and power inverters in my industry. Mexican/China assembled is easier to acquire.
.
RAM HD, no shortage.
GM Ford, Nissan, Toyota> OMG!!1!1! we can't get the chips!!!!
Same deal with air conditioning equipment and power inverters in my industry. Mexican/China assembled is easier to acquire.
.
More Turbo
Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 591
Likes: 320
It was my understanding that in addition to the chip industry being at a reduced production capacity that some auto manufacturers put a stop on their recurring orders early on in the pandemic. The chip manufacturers found other customers to buy the forfeited production capacity. This put those auto makers at the back of the line and/or looking for new options. I do not have any articles to reference at the moment but maybe someone else does.
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Fleet Mechanic
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 1,641
Likes: 507
From: Phelan CA
So it's not really a chip shortage, just more gaslighting about COVID. Thanks.
Laughing Gas
Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 888
Likes: 370
This explains the various details involved - https://www.motortrend.com/news/auto...sons-solution/
Cargo Master
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,073
Likes: 1,027
From: Michigan
This has more to do with the cost of change not the willingness to change. Changing chips can require extensive redesign of the printed circuit board it is mounted to. Changing a processor chip is the most disruptive as supporting chips such as memory, buffers, communication and voltage regulators must also be changed. Software has to be rewritten. Then there is the testing to validate the design. This all costs money.
"Ancient" chips in the technology market are only 3 to 5 years old. The auto industry will always lag behind the chips in cell phones, computers and electronic games. Those platforms thrive on 2 to 3 year life cycles and customers who are who enthusiastically discard an operating device for the latest being offered.
It's great that Intel is moving chip production to the US and others are sure to follow. But the recent shortage isn't simply an offshore problem. It is a labor shortage resulting from a worldwide pandemic. Even if the chips were made here, it doesn't mean we wouldn't have chip shortages in the automotive industry due to production issues, transportation issues or higher priority uses (cell phones and games).
"Ancient" chips in the technology market are only 3 to 5 years old. The auto industry will always lag behind the chips in cell phones, computers and electronic games. Those platforms thrive on 2 to 3 year life cycles and customers who are who enthusiastically discard an operating device for the latest being offered.
It's great that Intel is moving chip production to the US and others are sure to follow. But the recent shortage isn't simply an offshore problem. It is a labor shortage resulting from a worldwide pandemic. Even if the chips were made here, it doesn't mean we wouldn't have chip shortages in the automotive industry due to production issues, transportation issues or higher priority uses (cell phones and games).
I agree to disagree.
The chips used in your new super duty are circa 2004. The cost to companies to make such a chip causes companies not to want to make them, so they make the new generation where all the money is at.....Simple Capitalism. You could run your super duty with a new Raspberry Pi which costs about $25. Its time to cut the old and install new, rather then tool up the old to put into the new.
Fleet Mechanic
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,654
Likes: 697
I agree to disagree.
The chips used in your new super duty are circa 2004. The cost to companies to make such a chip causes companies not to want to make them, so they make the new generation where all the money is at.....Simple Capitalism. You could run your super duty with a new Raspberry Pi which costs about $25. Its time to cut the old and install new, rather then tool up the old to put into the new.
The chips used in your new super duty are circa 2004. The cost to companies to make such a chip causes companies not to want to make them, so they make the new generation where all the money is at.....Simple Capitalism. You could run your super duty with a new Raspberry Pi which costs about $25. Its time to cut the old and install new, rather then tool up the old to put into the new.
A chip from 2004 would not support the communication protocols, memory and data requirements for the distributed computer systems, sensors and software in today's vehicles. In my previous job we would get end of life notices from manufacturers for chips that were much younger than 18 years. Depending on the chip, it could be as early as 8. Part of our component selection process was assessing the chips maturity and the manufacturer's plans for supporting its production. The pace of change for chips has accelerated in recent years making it more challenging to design circuits for long service life products like cars and trucks.
Laughing Gas
Joined: Nov 2021
Posts: 888
Likes: 370
I would like to know the specifics around your claim that the chips used in new SD's are circa 2004. What chips and where are they used? Chip manufacturers typically do not support chips designs that old. The technology they are based on is obsolete and the associate manufacturing processes and tools have been abandoned.
A chip from 2004 would not support the communication protocols, memory and data requirements for the distributed computer systems, sensors and software in today's vehicles. In my previous job we would get end of life notices from manufacturers for chips that were much younger than 18 years. Depending on the chip, it could be as early as 8. Part of our component selection process was assessing the chips maturity and the manufacturer's plans for supporting its production. The pace of change for chips has accelerated in recent years making it more challenging to design circuits for long service life products like cars and trucks.
A chip from 2004 would not support the communication protocols, memory and data requirements for the distributed computer systems, sensors and software in today's vehicles. In my previous job we would get end of life notices from manufacturers for chips that were much younger than 18 years. Depending on the chip, it could be as early as 8. Part of our component selection process was assessing the chips maturity and the manufacturer's plans for supporting its production. The pace of change for chips has accelerated in recent years making it more challenging to design circuits for long service life products like cars and trucks.
"Cars use a lot of older, lower-tech "legacy" chips that cost only a few dollars each and have lower profit margins so there is less incentive for chipmakers to invest in more capacity. The low cost of legacy chips belies their importance. Vehicles rely on such chips for everything from door locks and infotainment to brakes and advanced driver assist systems. Advanced wafers that incorporate more chips are more plentiful; suppliers would rather make more sophisticated chips, made with newer technology that can put more chips on a single silicon wafer, and yield a better return."
I know that is not as specific as you would like so you or someone else will need to dig further.
Fleet Mechanic
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,654
Likes: 697
From the MT article I linked above.
"Cars use a lot of older, lower-tech "legacy" chips that cost only a few dollars each and have lower profit margins so there is less incentive for chipmakers to invest in more capacity. The low cost of legacy chips belies their importance. Vehicles rely on such chips for everything from door locks and infotainment to brakes and advanced driver assist systems. Advanced wafers that incorporate more chips are more plentiful; suppliers would rather make more sophisticated chips, made with newer technology that can put more chips on a single silicon wafer, and yield a better return."
I know that is not as specific as you would like so you or someone else will need to dig further.