At least, according to Ford. My stalking of local dealer inventory suggests otherwise, but we will see the Q1 number in 3 weeks.

If sales are up, I would wager it is because of massive incentives and the retail market availability of the "Base" model.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/ford..*****c-says.html

 

With an average transaction price of $39,200. Sounds like a load of BS to me. I saw another yesterday in the wild, that makes two that I've seen.

If I'm paying 39K for one of these, it'll only be for a top of the line Platinum with the 3.0L.

 

That might be possible. Ford said that 20% of Explorer sales are STs.

 

Probably because I'm in Detroit but I am seeing 2020's all over the place. Detroit certainly gets a lot of employee/family leases and purchases.

Parked in lots, driving next to me in traffic, cops in 2020 PI's with radars. I'm seeing a majority of XLT level vehicles on the road and in dealer stock. I think the $60k stickers on the upper end models are getting unrealistic for most people.

It could be that a lot of the early production that came to Flat Rock in Michigan for fixing was kept in town with some subsidized employee deals.

 

With people busy buying enough toilet paper to reach the moon, and enough eggs to feed Patton's 5th Army, I don't think that they have time to look at cars. Q1 sales are going to be dismal, I bet.

 

Yup, the whole auto industry is in for a huge recession. Deals on new cars are gonna be great because nobody is shopping for a car right now. I sense more automaker bankruptcies, and unemployment is gonna be really bad for a while. I am guessing that prices on lower-end entry level SUV's will have to come down to recapture the former Fiesta/Focus buying demographic--they won't be buying $30k Escapes in place of $15k Fiestas...

That said, I went to Costco yesterday (they had TP and eggs, limit 1 per day per cardholder, and were not too crowded) and when I got out of my car, there were 3 2020 Explorers parked within 300 feet of my car... Seems like I'm seeing as many 2020's as I am the 2011-2019 generation Explorers, but I'm in Detroit... I am really liking the looks of the 2020 but it's larger and more expensive than I'd like for a daily driver.

 

I'm very pleased that I waited and I may jump once I sense that the bottom has been reached. I did this on a recent mortgage refi and made out very well. I feel that I h ave a good sense for what's coming and that I've applied a good strategy to get it.

 

So you anticipated this virus thing?

Will you buy my next lotto ticket?

 

Right before the Covid-19 outbreak, I noticed several dealers in the area modifying their hours. Gone were the 9-9 M-Th F 9-6/7 Sa 9-5/6 Su closed. Now they are 9/10-7 M-Th Fr Sa 9-5 Su Closed. It could also have been Asian brand vehicles. They did have supply chain and manufacturing issues in the far east like Korea. Unfortunately, this is not going to be good for most brands as you put it a huge recession. I feel it was there to begin with and the outbreak essentially was the straw that broke the camels back. I see companies out there offering to pay which should be called deferred payments for to X amount of months. Deals will be out there but not yet. It's going to take a few months to see where the dusts settles. Between ramping up the medical aspects, people not in the mood for purchasing vehicles, vehicle production in Europe and the Americas being shuttered, it's going to be very interesting. The shuttering of manufacturing might actually give dealers time to sell off product on the lot. Current inventory maybe cleared out before production starts again. Getting the lines back up if the stoppage is longer than a few weeks, manufacturers could drag their feet getting more workers back on line if a recession hits. Why make as many of a product that no one is going to purchase due to the economic downturn? Then again, in what 1931/32 Ford introduced the flathead V8 for the everyday man. That too was in the middle of the Great depression and people still purchased a vehicle when or if they could.

Now as for the entry level models dropping down in price, I don't know how they will pull that off. That is going to be a major pricing adjustment. This might make the big 3 reverse course and get small and mid sized products i.e cars back in the line up for the market. It's going to be a bigger up-hill fight for them. Let's see how this is going to play out.

BTW, I have seen about a dozen new 2020s on the road just before the whole virus outbreak. A number of them had temp tags so I am going to have to say the Explorer seemed to do well locally in February. Let's see what happens

I think it's going to be longer than what most people thing. I know the current administration is hoping for a roaring, bounce back type of scenario. The market is trying to find it's footing. We lost nearly a 1/3 of the Dow in about a week. The talk is to temporarily stop trading for a period of time to let things settle. I know in my business, we had several people cancel orders, sales have all but dried up, and in my department product support, it has died down big time. There are a few in shop repairs. Which took time for people to pay for before starting work. One guy paid about 2 weeks before all this happened. I started his work order today since we got the parts in finally. I don't know what the ownership is really thinking right now. They just say stay the course and not worry about it. IDK.

Ditto!

 

Patton's army in Europe was the 3rd.

 

What a silly thing to say.

 

Yes. Should have looked that up.

 

Not if you have a sense of humor.

 

True, hadn't had coffee yet. I'm good now.

So, production of the Ranger has stopped for the moment due to COVID-19. If supplies get low, Ford won't have to rebate squat but one thing is for sure, I ain't buying on a whim. This virus will get past us and we'll get back on track.

 

While you were all talking bout Patton rolling through Western Europe, I did some light reading.

Main Article
https://jalopnik.com/many-car-dealer...his-1842413427

Not impressed as much as it is a summary of the WSJ article with some tidbits.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/32634/...-huge-downturn

The article that the first two used for paraphasing.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronav...=hp_lead_pos11

Financing which I didn't get to read fully. Now they are using 7 year loans as a means....
https://jalopnik.com/several-automak...ial-1842378572

I think this is going to be very interesting in the coming months.... I am wondering if good deals can be had as of right now depending on the view point. However one of the more interesting aspects I read I think WSJ was the increased use of on line sales. I know this has been a buying tactic for awhile now but this whole virus pandemic might give dealers more pause and realize the store front is not going to be as much of a future. E mail is powerful tool that just got more powerful. When I bought my 2011 F250 it was through the internet sales department. It was easy and simple. No real haggling. We got the numbers in one round. My F350 purchase reminded me why I hate dealing with car salesmen.