2015 Weather Log Book (West TN & Regional)
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
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From: Drummonds, TN USA
2015 Weather Log Book (West TN & Regional)
Since I check weather almost daily when important things are going on, I thought I would copy and paste the NWS Discussions that pertain to us in this thread so we can track and talk about them.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
~ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED DUE SOUTH OF
NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING WHILE A DEEP POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET HAVE
OCCURRED...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...AS THE PRECIP OVERCOMES
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE NE GULF TODAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL PUSH EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA DURING THE DAY.
00Z/06Z MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
WITH ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND
HOWEVER IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING IN TERMS OF UVVS OR QPF
OUTPUT. THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AS A RESULT INDICATED A COUPLE
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MEM AND MKL. OTHER MODELS WERE GENERALLY
WARMER. 06Z NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE COME IN WARMER SO AT THIS POINT
EXPECT THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT HAVE PLAYED DOWN
THE SNOW AND INCLUDED SOME SLEET THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW/SLEET THAT
DOES FALL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING THANKS TO THE ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR WINTER PRECIP BECOME EVEN
MORE MARGINAL AND HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP QUICKLY PULLS EAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING
AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.
SATURDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD. WEAK RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD WEST WIND
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 30S DESPITE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
SUNDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE SECTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB AHEAD INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A GUSTY WSW WIND.
EXTENDED...COOL NW FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE HIGHS BUILDING IN ALONG WITH QUIET
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
~What this has meant so far in South Tipton County this morning is very light flurries. You could see snowflakes here and there, but nothing like real snow.
Afternoon Update:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
DISCUSSION
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS CENTERS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88 RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SOIL TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAIN WARM AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
GRASSY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
~ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED DUE SOUTH OF
NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING WHILE A DEEP POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET HAVE
OCCURRED...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...AS THE PRECIP OVERCOMES
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE NE GULF TODAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL PUSH EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA DURING THE DAY.
00Z/06Z MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP
WITH ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND
HOWEVER IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING IN TERMS OF UVVS OR QPF
OUTPUT. THE 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AS A RESULT INDICATED A COUPLE
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MEM AND MKL. OTHER MODELS WERE GENERALLY
WARMER. 06Z NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE COME IN WARMER SO AT THIS POINT
EXPECT THAT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT HAVE PLAYED DOWN
THE SNOW AND INCLUDED SOME SLEET THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW/SLEET THAT
DOES FALL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING THANKS TO THE ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR WINTER PRECIP BECOME EVEN
MORE MARGINAL AND HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP QUICKLY PULLS EAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING
AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING.
SATURDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD. WEAK RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD WEST WIND
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 30S DESPITE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
SUNDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE SECTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB AHEAD INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A GUSTY WSW WIND.
EXTENDED...COOL NW FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE HIGHS BUILDING IN ALONG WITH QUIET
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE COOL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
~What this has meant so far in South Tipton County this morning is very light flurries. You could see snowflakes here and there, but nothing like real snow.
Afternoon Update:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
DISCUSSION
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS CENTERS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88 RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AND/OR SLEET THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SOIL TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAIN WARM AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
GRASSY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Current weather in S. Tipton County is 62 degrees, and clear skies @ 9:38 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS
NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ACTUALLY HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH A
ROUGHLY 1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND TEMPS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND
EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEEPER SYSTEM...MOVING CLOSER TO
THE MIDSOUTH...AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FROM DYR-MKL TO
THE TN RIVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY
THOUGH IT WILL FEEL CHILLIER DUE TO GUSTY W/WNW WINDS. LINGERING
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER...OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL END
SUNDAY EVENING. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN THE 40S. QUIET
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A
LITTLE BIT...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD INVOLVE WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL GET EVEN MORE INTERESTING IF THE ECMWF PICKS UP ON
THIS POSSIBILITY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS
NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ACTUALLY HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH A
ROUGHLY 1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND TEMPS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND
EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEEPER SYSTEM...MOVING CLOSER TO
THE MIDSOUTH...AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FROM DYR-MKL TO
THE TN RIVER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY
THOUGH IT WILL FEEL CHILLIER DUE TO GUSTY W/WNW WINDS. LINGERING
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER...OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL END
SUNDAY EVENING. A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN THE 40S. QUIET
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A
LITTLE BIT...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BEYOND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN INTERESTING SOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD INVOLVE WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. WILL GET EVEN MORE INTERESTING IF THE ECMWF PICKS UP ON
THIS POSSIBILITY.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Sunday 25 Jan 2015
Overcast, 50 degrees, 50% chance of rain predicted later today.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
NORTH OF I-40. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY...5-10 MPH EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LIFTED INDEX VALUES ACTUALLY FALL TO NEAR
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 18Z-00Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS...NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY. WILL ALSO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ALOFT.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NW WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOW CLOUDS
WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...BEGINNING TO THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR PARIS TO AROUND 50 IN CLARKSDALE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT PERIOD TRANSITIONING
FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT FROM SOME 20S ALONG THE TN RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
Overcast, 50 degrees, 50% chance of rain predicted later today.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
NORTH OF I-40. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY...5-10 MPH EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LIFTED INDEX VALUES ACTUALLY FALL TO NEAR
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 18Z-00Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS...NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY. WILL ALSO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ALOFT.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NW WINDS WILL ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOW CLOUDS
WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...BEGINNING TO THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR PARIS TO AROUND 50 IN CLARKSDALE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT PERIOD TRANSITIONING
FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT FROM SOME 20S ALONG THE TN RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
1030AM Monday26JAN2015
Completely clouded over, clouds dark gray and look like rain or snow clouds, but no precipitation yet. Moving from West/Northwest to E/SE
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
UPDATE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S UNDER NW WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BLIZZARD IS PUSHING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS WIND SHIFT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST... ALONG THE TN RIVER...WHERE LOWER 40S
IS ABOUT THE LIMIT...TEMPS WILL HIT 50 ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
ARKANSAS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DROP INTO WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO SWITCH THE SURFACE WINDS BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE GUSTY BY MORNING AND
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER. THE MAV AND
MET ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE HAD
TO CUT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NEAR PARIS...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY TO
THE MID 50S ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP
WITH DEVELOPING WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER A COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS TIMING AND CONSISTENCY ARE NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT. GFS IS
FASTER...ECMWF IS SLOWER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH LOW POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
Afternoon update:
/ISSUED 259 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW IS TAKING PLACE 800-900 MILES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHERE A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD IS
BEGINNING ITS ASSAULT ON THE NORTHEASTERN US. IN THE MIDSOUTH
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE PALATABLE FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AAND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 30S. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A 25-35
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. IF WE
ARE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT GET MY HOPES UP FOR SNOW IN A FORECAST
BEYOND JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. CHANCES ARE...GUIDANCE WILL TREND
DRIER...WARMER...OR SHIFT MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER.
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015
UPDATE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S UNDER NW WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BLIZZARD IS PUSHING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS WIND SHIFT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST... ALONG THE TN RIVER...WHERE LOWER 40S
IS ABOUT THE LIMIT...TEMPS WILL HIT 50 ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
ARKANSAS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DROP INTO WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO SWITCH THE SURFACE WINDS BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE GUSTY BY MORNING AND
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER. THE MAV AND
MET ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE HAD
TO CUT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NEAR PARIS...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY TO
THE MID 50S ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP
WITH DEVELOPING WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER A COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS TIMING AND CONSISTENCY ARE NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT. GFS IS
FASTER...ECMWF IS SLOWER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH LOW POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
Afternoon update:
/ISSUED 259 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW IS TAKING PLACE 800-900 MILES TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHERE A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD IS
BEGINNING ITS ASSAULT ON THE NORTHEASTERN US. IN THE MIDSOUTH
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE PALATABLE FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AAND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 30S. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
COMMON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY
SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A 25-35
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. IF WE
ARE TO SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT GET MY HOPES UP FOR SNOW IN A FORECAST
BEYOND JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. CHANCES ARE...GUIDANCE WILL TREND
DRIER...WARMER...OR SHIFT MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER.
Thread Starter
|
Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
60 f. @ S. Tipton Co. 9AM (Observed locally) Clear Sky
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S
IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S
IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Wednesday, 28jan2015: Clear & cool (56) at the Big River
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
* Historically, February is the month to watch out for "trouble weather".
Evening Update:
318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
DISCUSSION
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
My own observation is that it has been right at 60 degrees most of the day with clear skies, winds gusty enough that I didn't want to risk burning off any brush today.
*NOTE: Northwest wind means the wind is COMING FROM the northwest, not going to.
*NOTE 2: Warming trends almost always bring windy conditions right behind them.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
* Historically, February is the month to watch out for "trouble weather".
Evening Update:
318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015
DISCUSSION
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
My own observation is that it has been right at 60 degrees most of the day with clear skies, winds gusty enough that I didn't want to risk burning off any brush today.
*NOTE: Northwest wind means the wind is COMING FROM the northwest, not going to.
*NOTE 2: Warming trends almost always bring windy conditions right behind them.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Current temp in Drummonds is 66, with mild winds and grey overcast wall to wall
Above observed at 1:00 PM, I got a late start today.
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
Trending Topics
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
62 degrees at 10AM, mostly clear but FEELS cold
NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTEND INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR. MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WITH A LIGHT WIND...IT WILL
BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DIVIDED THE POP GROUP INTO TWO
SIX HOUR PERIODS...SINCE LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL QUICKLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO KY BY SUNSET. SHOWERS LOOK TO
BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. THE NAM IS INDICATING ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE KEEPING IT MORE STABLE. FOR NOW...HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END OR TAPER OFF ABOUT THE TIME IT BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW. NEVERTHELESS...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH THE COLD AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO JACKSON TENNESSEE TO AROUND IUKA MISSISSIPPI.
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. WIND CHILL
READINGS MONDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINLY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH
MS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ALSO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
I hope this is helping some folks, besides giving me something to look at and follow along with actual weather results. It's a more detailed picture than ordinary news weather. I see there are a few folks looking at it everyday...
~Wolfie
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTEND INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR. MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WITH A LIGHT WIND...IT WILL
BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DIVIDED THE POP GROUP INTO TWO
SIX HOUR PERIODS...SINCE LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL QUICKLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO KY BY SUNSET. SHOWERS LOOK TO
BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. THE NAM IS INDICATING ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE KEEPING IT MORE STABLE. FOR NOW...HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END OR TAPER OFF ABOUT THE TIME IT BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW. NEVERTHELESS...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH THE COLD AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO JACKSON TENNESSEE TO AROUND IUKA MISSISSIPPI.
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. WIND CHILL
READINGS MONDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINLY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH
MS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ALSO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
I hope this is helping some folks, besides giving me something to look at and follow along with actual weather results. It's a more detailed picture than ordinary news weather. I see there are a few folks looking at it everyday...
~Wolfie
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Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
It looks (in the sattellite images) as if a lot of cold air is on its way
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
UPDATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
EAST OF RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. MODELS INDICATE BACK EDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOON. WILL UPDATE TO TRIM POPS ACCORDINGLY.
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP WEST OF THE RIVER BUT
BULK OF RAIN WILL BE DONE WITH. THINK THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS PRECIP
IS MOVING EAST SO FAST.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS SO
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NO PRECIP AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NE ARKANSAS THAT WILL NEED TO ALSO BUMP
UP HIGHS TO THE MID 50S.
KRM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE PUSHING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WARMER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. THE
LOWER LEVELS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT
WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THE RAIN WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
LOW.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1000 MB AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN BY SUNSET.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH
EASTERN AR BY NOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO NEAR THE TN RIVER AND THE MS /
AL BORDER BY SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AND THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. BASED ON THE
FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ALSO...SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY PUSH INTO NORTH MS DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING THE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT
OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF THE MO BOOTHEEL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BEGAN TO SHOW THE POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY END FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ONCE TEMPERATURES
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE MO AND KY BORDERS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER TX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST RAIN BEING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST.
THE WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF. SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO LIGHT
SNOW FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING POSSIBLE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE. FOR THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...
BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
COME TOGETHER ON THIS SITUATION REGARDING PRECIP IF ANY AND PRECIP
TYPES.
This link is to the NOAA animated eastern USA Infrared loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html
It should update itself every few hours or so and you can see the direction and size of these weather patterns
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
UPDATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
EAST OF RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...CLAY AND GREENE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. MODELS INDICATE BACK EDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOON. WILL UPDATE TO TRIM POPS ACCORDINGLY.
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP WEST OF THE RIVER BUT
BULK OF RAIN WILL BE DONE WITH. THINK THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS PRECIP
IS MOVING EAST SO FAST.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS SO
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NO PRECIP AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NE ARKANSAS THAT WILL NEED TO ALSO BUMP
UP HIGHS TO THE MID 50S.
KRM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE PUSHING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WARMER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. THE
LOWER LEVELS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT
WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...THE RAIN WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
LOW.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1000 MB AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN BY SUNSET.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH
EASTERN AR BY NOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO NEAR THE TN RIVER AND THE MS /
AL BORDER BY SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AND THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. BASED ON THE
FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ALSO...SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY PUSH INTO NORTH MS DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING THE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT
OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF THE MO BOOTHEEL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BEGAN TO SHOW THE POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY END FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ONCE TEMPERATURES
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE MO AND KY BORDERS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER TX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST RAIN BEING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST.
THE WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF. SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO LIGHT
SNOW FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING POSSIBLE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE. FOR THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...
BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
COME TOGETHER ON THIS SITUATION REGARDING PRECIP IF ANY AND PRECIP
TYPES.
This link is to the NOAA animated eastern USA Infrared loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html
It should update itself every few hours or so and you can see the direction and size of these weather patterns
Thread Starter
|
Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
38 degrees, and partly cloudy at the Big River
High temps predicted by local weather service to hover around upper forties to low fifties. NWS not far from same:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AND WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING UP WITH HOLES DEVELOPING OVER LARGE
SWATHS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE KY
BORDER...WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ELSW.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO
THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP BACK INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WATCHING SEVERAL FEATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO COME TOGETHER FOR ANY POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FIRST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOST MODELS KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WED AND WED EVENING THOUGH THE NAM DOES
PUSH SOME INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT KEPT A SMALL POP
TUPELO SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST PUSHING
IT THROUGH MEMPHIS JUST AFTER 00Z ON THU. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL 06Z THU. LASTLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
STILL NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO
QPF AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE ARCTIC FRONT SPEED AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STRENGTH. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS A DECENT
SWATH OF PRECIP THAT MOSTLY FALLS AS RAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BEFORE THE COLD AIR REALLY ARRIVES. THE GFS IS MUCH
COLDER BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK SO QPF OUTPUT IS
MINIMAL OVERALL. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE GOLDILOCKS SOLUTION FOR
SNOW LOVERS WITH ENOUGH POST FRONTAL LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. AT
THIS POINT THE NAM INDICATES UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN PLACES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS...UP TO PERHAPS HALF INCH. SREF PLUMES MEAN VALUES AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH...A HALF INCH IN MEMPHIS AND LESS
TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO. ANY PRECIP WILL END EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND THE AIRMASS
MODERATES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S OR FRIDAY AND 50S ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE RAIN FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AND WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING UP WITH HOLES DEVELOPING OVER LARGE
SWATHS OF EAST ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE KY
BORDER...WHERE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ELSW.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO
THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP BACK INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WATCHING SEVERAL FEATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO COME TOGETHER FOR ANY POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL FOR THE MIDSOUTH. FIRST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOST MODELS KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WED AND WED EVENING THOUGH THE NAM DOES
PUSH SOME INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AS A RESULT KEPT A SMALL POP
TUPELO SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST PUSHING
IT THROUGH MEMPHIS JUST AFTER 00Z ON THU. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL 06Z THU. LASTLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
STILL NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO
QPF AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE ARCTIC FRONT SPEED AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STRENGTH. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS A DECENT
SWATH OF PRECIP THAT MOSTLY FALLS AS RAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BEFORE THE COLD AIR REALLY ARRIVES. THE GFS IS MUCH
COLDER BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK SO QPF OUTPUT IS
MINIMAL OVERALL. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE GOLDILOCKS SOLUTION FOR
SNOW LOVERS WITH ENOUGH POST FRONTAL LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. AT
THIS POINT THE NAM INDICATES UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN PLACES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS...UP TO PERHAPS HALF INCH. SREF PLUMES MEAN VALUES AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH...A HALF INCH IN MEMPHIS AND LESS
TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO. ANY PRECIP WILL END EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND THE AIRMASS
MODERATES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S OR FRIDAY AND 50S ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE RAIN FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.
Thread Starter
|
Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
48 - 50 degrees at mid day. Look for gradually rising temps
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1058 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE
SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARD 50 THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL TOUCH MORE ON THIS BELOW...
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANCHORED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
BACKED AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEVELED AND EVEN RISEN SOME ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS/
SOUTHWEST TN...WHILE NORTHEAST TN REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. TODAY...EXPECT
SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT. 850
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AS ANY
APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL IS DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO WARM FURTHER THAN THE LOW 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUE WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A BETTER WARM ADVECTION
SIGNAL EXISTS. A WARM POCKET OF 850 MB AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ON
THE ORDER OF 20 KTS OR LESS...WILL PREVENT THAT AIRMASS FROM
ADVECTING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...A VERY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL EJECT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND BEGIN PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL THE PHASING PROCESS BEGINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE
A SHARPLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE. A BAND OF SNOWFALL POLEWARD OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT
FORCED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. MODELS DO
SHOW THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE CIRCULATION SLOWS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END AFTER 9-10AM
FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SREF PLUMES STILL INDICATE A WIDE RANGE
OF POTENTIAL STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALLS...WITH THE MEAN HOVERING
BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS GUIDANCE MATCHED WELL WITH GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT...THEREFORE FELT COMFORTABLE KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS AT AN
INCH OR LESS AREA-WIDE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FRONTOGENETIC
BANDS SUCH AS THESE ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY GO UNRESOLVED BY MODELS AT
THESE TIME SCALES. BOTTOM LINE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT...BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES IN EARNEST ON
FRIDAY AND EVEN MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 60 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION ZONE
AND THUSLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH.
/ISSUED 1058 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE
SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARD 50 THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL TOUCH MORE ON THIS BELOW...
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANCHORED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
BACKED AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEVELED AND EVEN RISEN SOME ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS/
SOUTHWEST TN...WHILE NORTHEAST TN REMAINS QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. TODAY...EXPECT
SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT. 850
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AS ANY
APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL IS DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO WARM FURTHER THAN THE LOW 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUE WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS A BETTER WARM ADVECTION
SIGNAL EXISTS. A WARM POCKET OF 850 MB AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ON
THE ORDER OF 20 KTS OR LESS...WILL PREVENT THAT AIRMASS FROM
ADVECTING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...A VERY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL EJECT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND BEGIN PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL THE PHASING PROCESS BEGINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE
A SHARPLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE. A BAND OF SNOWFALL POLEWARD OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT
FORCED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. MODELS DO
SHOW THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE THERMAL
GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE CIRCULATION SLOWS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL LOOKS TO END AFTER 9-10AM
FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. SREF PLUMES STILL INDICATE A WIDE RANGE
OF POTENTIAL STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALLS...WITH THE MEAN HOVERING
BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS GUIDANCE MATCHED WELL WITH GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT...THEREFORE FELT COMFORTABLE KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS AT AN
INCH OR LESS AREA-WIDE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FRONTOGENETIC
BANDS SUCH AS THESE ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY GO UNRESOLVED BY MODELS AT
THESE TIME SCALES. BOTTOM LINE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT...BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES IN EARNEST ON
FRIDAY AND EVEN MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 60 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN THE TRANSITION ZONE
AND THUSLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH.
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
65 f. on the bluff by the Big River - tonight and thursday will be the coldest
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE IN DEPTH
DISCUSSION PROVIDED BELOW...
FOR TODAY...A MILD DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...COOLER NORTH...WARMER SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER...EXTENDING EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN MO. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ORIENTS ITSELF MORE PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SLOW ITS
PROGRESSION SOMEWHAT. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXTREMELY DENSE WHICH WILL AID IN FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-305 K SURFACE SHOWS WEAK UPGLIDE ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FOR THE 21-00Z
TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH FROM MISSOURI. SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO
THIS BAND WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS THE MIDSOUTH. WHAT
WAS AN INITIALLY VERY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR 850 MB ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY UPON ENTERING THE
MIDSOUTH. MODEL X-SECTS ALSO REVEAL THAT WHILE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG...NET VERTICAL MOTIONS DECREASE
AS THE COMPONENT RIDING UP THE SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS THE REASON THAT MODEL QPFS DROP OFF SO
QUICKLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST
PLAUSIBLE. HAVE DECREASED SNOW TOTALS FOR THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1/2"...ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO...AND NORTHERN TN. FURTHER SOUTH...AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1/2".
AS FOR TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST ACROSS NORTHEAST
AR...THE BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN TN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 9 PM AND 12 AM THURSDAY NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR...THEN BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
BY 6 AM THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE BAND WILL HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.
FOR THE MID AND LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH NEARBY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED. A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 13-14C ON SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
SEEMS FAR TOO LOW WITH FORECAST HIGHS. FOR THIS REASON...HIGHS
WERE INCREASED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
AND READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLEND AS RESOURCES
WERE FOCUSED ON FINE-TUNING THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD AMPLIFIES WITH EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WITH THE MID SOUTH
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITIONAL/CHANGEABLE PERIOD.
~For whatever reason Drummonds (38023) tends to have a bit warmer temps than Memphis itself, and precip is generally less.
It isn't southern California, but I suppose it's as close to it as it gets in TN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE IN DEPTH
DISCUSSION PROVIDED BELOW...
FOR TODAY...A MILD DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...COOLER NORTH...WARMER SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER...EXTENDING EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN MO. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ORIENTS ITSELF MORE PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SLOW ITS
PROGRESSION SOMEWHAT. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXTREMELY DENSE WHICH WILL AID IN FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-305 K SURFACE SHOWS WEAK UPGLIDE ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FOR THE 21-00Z
TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH FROM MISSOURI. SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO
THIS BAND WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS THE MIDSOUTH. WHAT
WAS AN INITIALLY VERY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR 850 MB ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY UPON ENTERING THE
MIDSOUTH. MODEL X-SECTS ALSO REVEAL THAT WHILE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG...NET VERTICAL MOTIONS DECREASE
AS THE COMPONENT RIDING UP THE SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS THE REASON THAT MODEL QPFS DROP OFF SO
QUICKLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST
PLAUSIBLE. HAVE DECREASED SNOW TOTALS FOR THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1/2"...ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO...AND NORTHERN TN. FURTHER SOUTH...AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1/2".
AS FOR TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST ACROSS NORTHEAST
AR...THE BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHERN TN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 9 PM AND 12 AM THURSDAY NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR...THEN BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
BY 6 AM THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THE BAND WILL HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.
FOR THE MID AND LONG TERM...THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH NEARBY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED. A SIGNIFICANT MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 13-14C ON SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION AND GUIDANCE
SEEMS FAR TOO LOW WITH FORECAST HIGHS. FOR THIS REASON...HIGHS
WERE INCREASED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
AND READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE MODEL BLEND AS RESOURCES
WERE FOCUSED ON FINE-TUNING THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD AMPLIFIES WITH EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WITH THE MID SOUTH
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITIONAL/CHANGEABLE PERIOD.
~For whatever reason Drummonds (38023) tends to have a bit warmer temps than Memphis itself, and precip is generally less.
It isn't southern California, but I suppose it's as close to it as it gets in TN
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Chilly but clear. Watching for warming over the weekend
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
DISCUSSION
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD WITH LOWS FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
BY FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH. THIS WILL MEAN MILDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL AS SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THEN TURN COLDER BY NEXT THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
DISCUSSION
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD WITH LOWS FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
BY FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH. THIS WILL MEAN MILDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS WELL AS SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT THEN TURN COLDER BY NEXT THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
We seem to be in a weekly cycle at this point, gradually warming
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
DISCUSSION
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SO THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
TONIGHT. AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THIS EVENING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND
WHAT RAIN IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENDING IN THE MORNING.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY WITH
BE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRINGING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AIR SO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BE SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND ALLOWING
MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NEXT SATURDAY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
DISCUSSION
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SO THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
TONIGHT. AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THIS EVENING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND
WHAT RAIN IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENDING IN THE MORNING.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY WITH
BE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRINGING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AIR SO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BE SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND ALLOWING
MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NEXT SATURDAY.
Thread Starter
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Fleet Owner
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 29,941
Likes: 46
From: Drummonds, TN USA
Pretty good sized cold air flow will be around for a while
If you look at the animated loop picture it comes down through Missouri and makes a gradual turn right at Tennessee before going back up to the Northeast
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1016 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
UPDATE...
AT 16Z THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAD MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH. CLOUDS WERE FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOUT
ONE HALF OF THE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER SOME CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA WERE ALREADY IN
THE MID 50S AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR THE
SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOW TO REACH THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AREAS
FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING THE CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY.
EVENTUALLY LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
BEHIND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE LATEST FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. LATER
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A QUICK MODIFICATION IN
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND PROVIDE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1016 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
UPDATE...
AT 16Z THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAD MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH. CLOUDS WERE FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOUT
ONE HALF OF THE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER SOME CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA WERE ALREADY IN
THE MID 50S AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR THE
SAME AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOW TO REACH THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AREAS
FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING THE CLOUDS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY.
EVENTUALLY LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
BEHIND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE LATEST FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. LATER
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A QUICK MODIFICATION IN
TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND PROVIDE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.