I cannot take credit for it. Lifted it from HBO's Rome, courtesy of Cato the Younger.

 

I primarily care about Total Cost to Own, which depreciation is a major factor.

I just looked at a 2025 F-250 Lariat lease with X-Plan on the Ford X-Plan site.
This make my Lightning Lease deal look like a Deal of the Century. It's not a very good deal at all.

Residual is much worse that my Lightning
Payment is MUCH MUCH Higher than my Lightning
Similar MSRP
Also $0 Down Payment
Payment $1,798.78

Details:
$0 Down Payment
[size=13px]$1,798.78 Estimated monthly vehicle payment
10,500 miles Annual mileage [/size]
[size=13px] [/size][size=13px]39 months Term (number of months)[/size][size=13px] [/size]
[size=13px]$45,803.10 Residual value [/size]

MSRP $93,080
Total dealer selling price $90,805.0
Acquisition Fee $695.00
Total estimated gross capitalized cost $91,500.00

 

So now you are using MSRP minus x plan(which is about 4-5%) for Super Dutys when SDs have many more incentives available to them, but when you calculate cost to own EVs, one must use prices with all discounts possible plus all available tax credit incentives?


Okay.

Well let's just say you are correct about everything, that the Lightning EV has phenomenal resale value, is a wonderful vehicle to own and live with, has so much utility that no one seems to know about. How come Ford essentially declined to market it? It seems almost as if there are other financial reasons due to which Ford was reluctant to sell too many of these things. Curious, ain't it? With everything going for it, one would think Ford wouldn't be able to keep these things in stock.

 

Yes "Cost to Own" considers total cost that includes "out the door cost" which includes tax credits, incentives, plus depreciation, variable running expenses, maintenance, Insurance etc. The best Lightning deals I saw was a very short period in Q1 2025.

I used the exact same web site, fordpartner.com that I used when I leased my Lightning where incentives automatically populated. I don't see any incentives listed other than the $1,000 0-0-0 deal on the base Ford Site for a Super Duty. I would be interested in seeing a link for the "many more incentives" available for Super duty trucks. Brandon Ford has over 400 New Super Duty trucks in inventory. The ones with the greatest discounts off MSRP are aged 2025's and they are being discounted about $12,000 and their 2026s about 5k.

My point in my previous posting was that Ford's Percent residual for a Super Duty truck lease is not much different of that on a Lightning for the same miles and lease term. Typically the Residual is based on what the lessor feels the vehicle will be worth at the lease end.

Of course with recent announcement that the Lightning will stop production this will change things. It's anyone's guess what that change will be after the smoke clears. Currently dealers are offering lowball trade in values because of the uncertainty and I don't blame them. But it's interesting that I don't see dealers discounting Lightings as I expected.

 

Total Cost To Own in a comparison such as the one postulated above should factor the difference between the cost of diesel fuel, DEF, and oil changes, versus the cost of electricity to charge, an a per mile basis.

On the running costs as a daily driver, I'm betting that Lightning owners will make up for a lot of depreciation by the savings on diesel fuel (or gas, as the case may be). The more miles driven, the more dollars saved per mile.

The savings is more favorable for Lightning owners who work at facilities that offer free charging to employees.

And, given how a friend just got physically attacked driving his CyberTruck on New Year's Eve, still, some 6 months after the Musk bromance ended... the Lightning truck doesn't have to haul that political baggage in its frunk.

 

But why are we comparing a Lightning to a superduty truck? Latch that lightning on to a 30,000 pound trailer and tell us what happened.

Shouldn't we compare a Lightning to an F150 Lariat or Platty? I'm sure the total cost of ownership will still come out in favor of the Lightning. Is there a tax difference between the Lightning and the petro trucks? Is there a difference in the price of tires?

Another observation, Car and Driver just posted the top 25 best selling vehicles for 2025. Naturally the F-series came in #1 and the GM twins # 2 and 3. In both instances, the electric trucks were excluded from those sales numbers. The Lightning sales dwarfed the GM E-truck about 3-1 in 2025 total sales.

 

To be fair, HD pickup leases are a TOTALLY different animal. Most of the time Ram is the only company that will even lease a HD. And the banks that do the leases smack you around on the residuals because a higher % of HD trucks are used for hard work and therefore the vehicle will get beat up pretty bad in the first few years. Just go to any dealer and look at their assortment of 2 to 4 year old HD trucks. They have roughed up tailgates, trashed interiors, scratches all over the paint, bed floor is dented, and lots of times the odometers have high readings already. None of those things are conducive for a lease program vehicle. So, IF you lease a HD truck you will pay dearly for it.

The Lightning is an F-150 and would be most fairly compared to ICE F-150s. I was looking at some 4 year old F-150s at the dealership last week and the resale values were high. A 2021 Lariat CC 4x4 was $58k. A stripped down STX with the base 2.7 engine is $40k. Those values are much better at 4 years than what we're seeing on Lightning.

 

To be fair, loaded up "luxury" versions of pickups have always devalued faster than the lower trim levels. Used trucks are far more likely to be worked. Upper level trim trucks have more things to break.malfunction, and generally age poorly due to fancy trim and leather looking worse as it wears than basic trimmed trucks.

The real measure of what a used truck is worth is where it's value is between 5-10 years. After 10 years, all that matters, for the most part, are condition and miles.

I don't think it would be too difficult for Ford to keep supporting the Lightning platform for up to 10 years after it's discontinuation date. After that, it's just a guess, as technology is always evolving far more quickly than mechanical tech. More and more, ICE vehicles are becoming dependent on tech just to start and run. As the current tech of the day becomes outdated, and unsupported, even ICE vehicles are at risk of being bricked long before their practical mechanical parts are worn to the point that it makes more sense to junk the truck than continue to use it.

And that is the reason that so many people these days, who buy vehicles long term, are frustrated. OEMs are facing "right to repair" litigation, as those who keep vehicles beyond the span of the payments do not want to be forced to buy something new just to have a supported vehicle.

So, in short, a well cared for Lightning should last a comparable amount of time as a well cared for F150. However, like any discontinued vehicle, care and consideration should be used when contemplating a purchase. My guess is that in 5 years there will be many good used parts on the market for the Lightnings that are still on the road.

 

Used F150 and SDs command fairly robust used prices in my area regardless of trim, especially the King Ranch and higher PSDs. You are not gonna find 2 year old KR PSDs or F150 that originally stickered at 95k for 50k, for example. MY2021 F150 Tremors, KR and Platinum are still selling for well over 50% of their original sticker price even with 60-80k on the clock.