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Resale value compared to purchase price paid is the thing that one should be looking for, not normally compared to MSRP.
Early adopters are not in the best position due to the dealers at that time were not discounting and some even adding addendums with large "Market Adjustments". Recent buyers are in a better position.
Earlier this is year there were still Tax Credits , Dealer discounts, Ford Incentives and Ford discounts. Residual Value on a lease is based on a percentage of MSRP. Residual is only one of the 4 factors that is used to derive lease prices. MSRP, % RESIDUAL, Money Factor and Cap Cost is what is needed to figure lease payment. When a Salesman gives me "How Much a Month " I ask for a breakdown of the 4 factors. The only thing that is fixed and not negotiable is MSRP. the other factors are negotiable.
Example my 39 month lease has a residual of 55% of MSRP. But compared to price paid (Vehicle Price Net after Rebate) it's really 75% of price paid, or guaranteed of no more than 25% depreciation after 3+ years. I don't think you can get a guarantee that any ICE Truck of car will only depreciate 25% after 3 years. There is an extra acquisition fee.
Resale value compared to purchase price paid is the thing that one should be looking for, not normally compared to MSRP.
Early adopters are not in the best position due to the dealers at that time were not discounting and some even adding addendums with large "Market Adjustments". Recent buyers are in a better position.
Earlier this is year there were still Tax Credits , Dealer discounts, Ford Incentives and Ford discounts. Residual Value on a lease is based on a percentage of MSRP. Residual is only one of the 4 factors that is used to derive lease prices. MSRP, % RESIDUAL, Money Factor and Cap Cost is what is needed to figure lease payment. When a Salesman gives me "How Much a Month " I ask for a breakdown of the 4 factors. The only thing that is fixed and not negotiable is MSRP. the other factors are negotiable.
Example my 39 month lease has a residual of 55% of MSRP. But compared to price paid (Vehicle Price Net after Rebate) it's really 75% of price paid, or guaranteed of no more than 25% depreciation after 3+ years. I don't think you can get a guarantee that any ICE Truck of car will only depreciate 25% after 3 years. There is an extra acquisition fee.
The whole tax payer subsidized resale value aside, here is what the experts have to say about 2022 model year vehicles. In a market like this, 25% depreciation over 3 years isn't nearly as impressive as it used to be. And all of these vehicles have a 7500 dollar handicap compared to your EV since none of them got a tax credit.
The whole tax payer subsidized resale value aside, here is what the experts have to say about 2022 model year vehicles. In a market like this, 25% depreciation over 3 years isn't nearly as impressive as it used to be
Actually I feel that 25% depreciation over 3 years is a small price to pay to be able to enjoy the experience of driving a Lightning EV truck. My driving days may be coming to an end shortly so I intend to enjoy it while I can. It's only money and you can't take it with you.
I went online to try and get a value for my truck and it says there is no value available. In other words the online sources are basically saying they're not going to try and put a value on my truck. Anybody know of a way to try and get a ballpark value on this thing? 2025 Lightning with 5,000 miles on the odometer in the Flash trim level flawless condition. What are we talking, $50k? $60k? $40k?
I went online to try and get a value for my truck and it says there is no value available. In other words the online sources are basically saying they're not going to try and put a value on my truck. Anybody know of a way to try and get a ballpark value on this thing? 2025 Lightning with 5,000 miles on the odometer in the Flash trim level flawless condition. What are we talking, $50k? $60k? $40k?
I just checked Carvana by pulling a VIN from another ‘25 Flash listing and zip code for Lexington, KY. Not sure where you’re located, but this is probably the best idea you’re gonna get until the market stabilizes.
I’ve sold three cars to Carvana, and their offers are real. I was handed a check for the exact amount on their website when I sold each of them.
Well there ya' go. That's $30k under MSRP on one that rolled off the assembly line 6 months ago. Even if we consider the tax credit, this is still $22k in depreciation in less than 6 months and 5,000 miles. It's a disaster.
So I guess I'll just have to enjoy the truck for a while longer and see how things look next year.
Isn't your exposure to depreciation insulted by your lease?
Provided you remain within the annual mileage limits, and make your lease payments for the course of the term, does it matter how much the truck is worth at the end of the lease?
Isn't depreciation the lessor's problem, and not your problem as the lessee?
Or has the finance industry invented a new way to stick it to consumers on vehicle lease agreements?
Example my 39 month lease has a residual of 55% of MSRP. But compared to price paid (Vehicle Price Net after Rebate) it's really 75% of price paid, or guaranteed of no more than 25% depreciation after 3+ years. I don't think you can get a guarantee that any ICE Truck of car will only depreciate 25% after 3 years. There is an extra acquisition fee.
Originally Posted by Flyct
Actually I feel that 25% depreciation over 3 years is a small price to pay to be able to enjoy the experience of driving a Lightning EV truck. My driving days may be coming to an end shortly so I intend to enjoy it while I can. It's only money and you can't take it with you.
So you don't care about depreciation even though you were initially trying to argue it doesn't depreciate that much if one considers tax payer subsidized rebates?
Isn't your exposure to depreciation insulted by your lease?
Provided you remain within the annual mileage limits, and make your lease payments for the course of the term, does it matter how much the truck is worth at the end of the lease?
Isn't depreciation the lessor's problem, and not your problem as the lessee?
Or has the finance industry invented a new way to stick it to consumers on vehicle lease agreements?
If it isn't a disaster, then it is certainly a rare species of victory.
Well there ya' go. That's $30k under MSRP on one that rolled off the assembly line 6 months ago. Even if we consider the tax credit, this is still $22k in depreciation in less than 6 months and 5,000 miles. It's a disaster.
But is it? What was your capitalized amount on the lease? Did you really pay MSRP minus rebates?
My dealer has them on the lots for $10-12K under MSRP. Factory incentives have always affected resale, and truck MSRPs have been inflated above realistic sale prices for decades.
I’m not saying I’d be happy about it…depreciation was one of my biggest frustrations with mine. But lots of other cars fall off a cliff when they roll off the lot…ever look at a used BMW or Benz? I’m hardwired to look on the upside of things…it would be much worse if you paid MSRP plus markup like some of the first owners did.
But is it? What was your capitalized amount on the lease? Did you really pay MSRP minus rebates?
My dealer has them on the lots for $10-12K under MSRP. Factory incentives have always affected resale, and truck MSRPs have been inflated above realistic sale prices for decades.
I’m not saying I’d be happy about it…depreciation was one of my biggest frustrations with mine. But lots of other cars fall off a cliff when they roll off the lot…ever look at a used BMW or Benz? I’m hardwired to look on the upside of things…it would be much worse if you paid MSRP plus markup like some of the first owners did.
Are we comparing Ford trucks to legendary depreciation disasters like BMW and Benz now?
If an 80K SD lost 22k off its transaction price which can be anywhere between 3-10k below MSRP so call it 30k right off the lot, Ford would be in a frantic emergency CPR mode to reverse its image.
But, if there are 2 year old off personal lease low mileage Lariat PSD F350s going for 50k, I would LOVE to buy one.
I do keep track of my newer vehicles' value and on my 22 gas F250, even though it's a gas thus not as desirable as diesels on the used market, after almost 4 years, its carvana instant offer is about 9k off its original MSRP, or about 5k less than its x plan price(which is available to anyone with a heartbeat and 50 dollars to spare toward a membership to some orgs), so after everthing is said and done, that's 10% from a not-great transaction price after almost FOUR years and slightly below average number of miles. 10%, for a gas F250.
Last edited by twobelugas; Dec 30, 2025 at 04:29 PM.
I went online to try and get a value for my truck and it says there is no value available. In other words the online sources are basically saying they're not going to try and put a value on my truck. Anybody know of a way to try and get a ballpark value on this thing? 2025 Lightning with 5,000 miles on the odometer in the Flash trim level flawless condition. What are we talking, $50k? $60k? $40k?
The 2025 truck year and model is too new to use the online KBB etc values. It's typical. Until recently my 2024 Lightning Platinum would not give a value on KBB.COM toady shows $53,028-$60,565 in Good Condition.
A 2024 Flash with 2000 miles shows $42,179-$44,962 Trade in Value n "Good" condition
You can try Carvana.com and perhaps they will make an offer.
Isn't your exposure to depreciation insulted by your lease?
Provided you remain within the annual mileage limits, and make your lease payments for the course of the term, does it matter how much the truck is worth at the end of the lease?
Isn't depreciation the lessor's problem, and not your problem as the lessee?
Or has the finance industry invented a new way to stick it to consumers on vehicle lease agreements?
No, you are correct that since I was wise enough to lease mine I don't really have much to worry about. I could just suck it up for 3 more years and then walk away clean.
But, if I want to trade out of it early which I am now starting to consider since the towing range is preventing the wife and I from enjoying our long distance camping trips, I'm basically screwed by this enormous amount of depreciation.
ALL trucks depreciate as soon as a guy drives them off the lot. But not tens of thousands of dollars in the first 6 months. That's crazy.
So just to put some more confidence in the numbers we've thrown around in this thread... my '25 Flash that came off the line 6 months ago and now has 5,000 miles on it is worth $46k trade-in. That's a real number that I got from a Ford dealership today in Lexington. Woof. So at this point I'm stuck in the lease for probably another 2 years at best.
