Is 2021 the New 1971??? Ford Peaks on the Cusp of a Major Evolution
Ford in 2021 tells a tale of historical performance and hot sellers, but the ’20s are starting to look a lot like the early 1970s. Shortages. Big changes. But this time, we’re going to skip the malaise.
2021 was basically the worst time in history to buy a new truck or car. Low volume. High prices. Long waits. And you know what makes it all beyond frustrating? We’ve never lived in a more EXCITING time to buy a new car or truck. Ford brought back the Bronco to much acclaim along with an actually-affordable small truck, the Maverick. The F-Series remains the most popular new vehicle in the United States and has never been fancier nor faster. And the Mustang is a world-class sports car that can be had with up to 760 ponies under the hood. From the factory. With a warranty.
But there aren’t enough of them to meet demand. And many won’t be around much longer. Looking at you, V8s…
The End is Nigh (for V8s and Gas Cars)
With looming emissions regulations on the rise, automakers announce power declines for the next model year and the forthcoming discontinuation of high-performance V8 vehicles in favor of new technology… sound familiar? That was 1971.
1971, for those who don’t recall, was the peak of the muscle car era. The 1972 model year saw the first power declines in Mustang history. And here we are, exactly 40 years later, with Ford dropping Mustang GT and Mach 1 power for 2022. Sure, it’s only 10 ponies, but the last time Ford downgraded a V8 Mustang was 1974 (assuming a V8 was offered). Also, Dodge announced that Hellcats probably only have two more years. Most European brands have already dropped naturally aspirated V8s from their lineup. And a sizable chunk of automakers expect to go all-electric this decade.
The V8, my friend, is in its golden hour. If you love the sound of an internal combustion engine screaming to redline, the end is nigh, my friend. It’s over, save for a few last gasps of engineering greatness (Corvette Z06, anyone?). And it’s happening faster than we imagined.
A Few Silver Linings (Trucks Aren’t Cars)
I know I just unfurled a whole lotta enthusiast doom and gloom. And believe me, I’m not trying to exaggerate in any way, but let me offer three bits of hopeful context…
1) There’s Still a TON of Time. At this point, it appears the automakers are going to beat government regulations and stop producing gasoline-powered CARS before 2035. Even if it happens in 10, keep in mind that most people don’t drive new cars. Which means gasoline-powered vehicles are likely to make up the majority of vehicles on the road for, what, 20, 25 years? 2046 is a long time for automakers to build better EVs, improve batteries, and for the government and private sector to expand the grid and charging infrastructure.
On that timeline, think about what cars were like in 1996 — dramatically slower and less safe, and most people weren’t buying SUVs and crossovers. In that sense, we have time to make this transition.
2) Trucks are On a Different (Less Clear) Timeline. Truck guys, I hear you. You don’t want EVs and, by God, you hate the idea of the government and Ford marketing telling you what to buy. The core of this frustration, as I understand it, is range. And you’re right. If you drive long distances and/or tow frequently, a first-generation EV Truck is NOT for you. Based on what we’ve seen with the Rivian R1T, expect the extended-range F-150 Lightning to tow 10,000lbs roughly 50-100 miles before needing a recharge (variables include elevation, speed, temperature, etc.). That’s unacceptable, but here’s the good news…
Outside of needing to maintain FLEET AVERAGES for fuel economy and emissions, trucks have always existed in a different regulatory space from passenger vehicles. In that sense, we don’t yet know what’s coming (and when) for quarter-ton to full-ton trucks, gasoline or diesel. To be honest, without a revolutionary new battery and improved charging, expect trucks to be the last dinosaur-powered (road-going) vehicles to end production, if ever. Regardless, the timeline for trucks is a longer one than passenger vehicles and crossovers.
3) Performance is Here to Stay! The 1970s were terrible for Detroit and enthusiasts alike. But the 2020s promise a different future without any malaise. Why? Electric and hybrid vehicles offer several performance advantages. More specifically, instant torque and lower centers of gravity. Toss enough juice at a pair of electric motors and you’re in for a rollercoaster launch. I don’t have much Tesla seat time, but the Mustang Mach E and F-150 Lightning made me a fan of EVs in general.
Again, EVs aren’t for everyone. Not yet. But if you can install an at-home charger (an added expense) and don’t routinely drive over 200 or 300 miles each day, an EV can be extremely practical, reliable, and — wait for it — fun.
Ford’s Future – What Comes Next?
If Ford can find its way out of supply chain woes — making more of its own components, including batteries — they are poised for several record-breaking sales years… Between hot new models like the Bronco, Maverick, Lightning, and Mach E, and guaranteed hits like the F-Series and Explorer, they have a wide range of vehicles for a variety of customers. And they’re bringing new customers in from other brands, the key to growth.
I expect the next few years to be dramatic with more hybrid and electric offerings. The only thing I can’t estimate is what happens to the largest trucks. But after driving the PowerBoost, I wonder if there will simply be more Hybrid offerings across the F-Series. More instant torque, improved fuel economy, relatively simple to implement and maintain. I suspect the same thing will happen to the Mustang as well (and hopefully there will be a V8 option even if there’s a hybrid component).
Ultimately, as the door closes on 2021, I’m thinking more about 2031. A decade from now, Ford may very well LOOK similar to Ford today — this company LOVES design nostalgia and tradition, after all — but expect wildly different drivetrains for all but the superest of duties. Regardlesss, we’re in for a wild ride.
Ford 2021 Highs & Lows
Highs
- F-150 PowerBoost is terrific
- F-150 Lightning Prototype is thrilling
- The Coyote LIVES!
- The new Bronco is awesome fun
- The new Maverick debuts as an economical small truck
- Mustang Mach 1 and GT500 are exceptional Mustangs
Lows
- Supply chain shortages put a damper on almost everything, limiting supply, hurting quality control, and driving up prices (which, as a reminder, doesn’t benefit Ford, only dealers).
- We’re about to see the first intentional drop in Mustang power since 1971
Featured Image: Ford Motor Company assets
Original Photos: Michael S. Palmer
