No, Toyota probably will not have a best seller with the 2007 Tundra or even their new heavy duty trucks when they come out. They won't have to out sell everybody else to do well. They only have to meet their sells goals. Anybody that has ever been in business understands this. You look at your market do some test groups and set your sells goals. These sells goals in turn set your production goals. Toyota has been much better than Ford or Chevy at doing this. This is one of the many reasons that Ford and Chevy have had problems. They constantly do not meet their sells goals. They then have to do all kinds of rebates and special incentives to move the vehicles off the lots. The down side of this is it drives up the production costs percentages anyway compared to the income or sells. The actual costs to build the car have not changed. For Ford to do well in the future they need to set realistic sells and production goals. If their goals fall short of actual demand all the better for them. If you have a product that your sells goals were only 800 for and you have 1000 people wanting it you wont' have to lower the price to move it of the lot. Toyota has done this for years and that is why they have done so well not because they build a better product than everybody else. It's because they know how to read the market and use the media better than anybody else.

 

Trying to be the top seller is the wrong goal. Why strive to sell the most vehicles with little or no profit due to discounts and/or rebates when you can sell your total production with a high profit margin because you don't need large discounts or rebates? It's a supply and demand problem. The higher the supply, the cheaper you have to sell them.

 

That is exactly what Ford and GM's problem has been. They have produced far more vehicles than what the demand has been for them. It has nothing to do with anybody else taking market share away from them. They just don't know how to make accurate predictions. Why this is I have no idea. Maybe they make these wild over blown sells predictions to inspire short term investor confidence.