New Lightning for 2023; All Electric
https://amp.freep.com/amp/5020183001
So the electric truck is on the cusp of being here. I thought Ford had done a great job of laying out a future with their aluminum bodied trucks with turbo powered engines to get the power and economy up on the trucks; but that was for a somewhat short future (2017- to maybe 2027). Whether we like it or not, we are going to be different kinds of nerds in the future starting in about 2027. Go to a Tesla or electric vehicle forum and see what they have been writing about. They do not wrench on their vehicles like the current truck crowd does.
Right now, Ford is about to go to 3 truck lines in 2022; F series, Ranger, and the Maverick designed around an internal combustion engine (ICE). Ford is making the EV Truck look like their F series but in reality, they could go to a one or two platform offerings that has the footprint of a smaller vehicle but capability of the current offerings. And there is the rub, they have so much invested in the current ICE designs, this transition period is hard to negotiate with the top brass. The next 5 years will critical to the future leadership position within the industry.
I do not think the future is going to be shaped by the $100K electric PU; it will be shaped by the $35-$40K PU. The sales numbers for the affordable etrucks will rule going forward (within the next 5 or so years starting with 2022 MY). Ford can make the best etruck now but will not sell very many at the higher price point. Case in point is top end current Hybrid F150. To get the offering Ford has been hyping about you have to buy a top end (Platinum) model to get all the bells and whistles. Ford says there will be a Lightning model available for under $40K. I sure hope they do this early in the 2022 MY introduction. Ford needs big numbers of etruck sales to lead how the future unveils. I think the companies that are embracing a battery powered design (skateboard) with a more efficient platform on top will get a lower cost PU to market for the masses will have a decisive advantage over the path Ford is taking. Right now, Ford and the other manufactures have lots of cash and clout in the vehicle business but this window is narrow. I think what Tesla has been able to do is surprising in the car/SUV segment given the long establishment of the major auto makers. Their truck design is dumb, but it is different and holds many efficiencies over the current ICE designs. Every Tesla truck sale is one less for Ford or other major manufactures. In fact every etruck on the horizon is chasing the high end buyer; how many ~$90K truck buyers are out there? VW and some of the Asian manufactures are investing in a better pathway to yield a better $35-$40K etruck. We shall see how this unfolds.
BTW, the whole chip shortage is going to make this whole transition period messy. If you thought the current ICE designs needed a lot of chips, the future designs can be done with fewer but more complex chip designs. So the best ICE trucks that have been designed and built today may turn out to have fewest availability going forward into the future because everyone is trying to get the chips they need to meet their expected demands. And those offerings will be competing with the etrucks. If the etruck buying costs remain high, than the ICE trucks will have a longer future. But, if a few EV manufacturers can get efficient lower cost etrucks available sooner in the pipeline, then the ICU truck will fade quicker.
I love my 02 F150 and don't think I will upgrade again until the etruck path has been established. I have been a long time owner of Fords and hope my last couple of trucks will have the blue oval before I pass... but I'm not spending $100K on a new truck with a giant truck.
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