I drive by the Bencia, Ca rail yard several times a week. I did notice yesterday for the first time in over a year, that the yard is almost to capacity. There were a lot of trucks and cars waiting for the car transporters to load & deliver. ( all makes )

 

It's been my understanding from more than one dealer that for model year 2022, there will pretty much be no dealer stock. Everything will be customer ordered and if you see a truck on the lot, chances are that someone ordered it and then didn't take delivery.
I was contacted by the dealer nearest to me because Ford sent them my build info. Nothing but MSRP, no X Plan, 31 weeks for a truck to arrive, etc. Basically told them they were idiots and to leave me alone. A month later they're texting me to let me know they have a new XL on their lot that someone didn't want after it arrived. 1) I would never deal with Davidson Ford in Watertown, NY. 2) No way I'd drive an XL. No knock against those who have or like them but it's just not the truck for me.

 

At least for Ford, per the tracker trucks are being scheduled much quicker than earlier this year. Are there less orders coming in? Is it bc the plant will be shut down so they will have more supply thus the illusion of quicker scheduling? Was there just a one time mass supply of chips to allow more temporary production? Is there about be a global aluminum and chip shortage? Who knows, but i think low inventory is here to stay for at least 6 months unless demand falls off a cliff. I *think* (not factual just gut and watching lots around me), based on current subjective observations, you will see most trucks sell for MSRP soon and those marking up will just sit until they lower to MSRP. The system is very fragile right now, production capability could go drastically down or up, and demand could go drastically up or down. I would, and did, refuse to pay over MSRP, luckily i found Tom Hillier Ford in CA that sold me a custom order below MSRP. The only people paying these upcharges are; the rich, the companies that MUST get a truck right now, and those with low IQ (sorry), or those that are betting inflation is here to stay and they think prices will only continue to go up up UP…

 

My local dealer historically has ~20-30 non-commercial Super Duties in inventory. For the past several months, they have had ~5-7. Right now, there's 2. Most have the green Special Order Window Stickers.

 

I was in Orlando, FL this past weekend and saw a large dealership with 50+ new pickups. Got me to wondering if the warm weather states get these trucks or just cant sell them. Meanwhile my local Ford dealer had 4 new F150's on his lot. In the past 2 years, he hasn't had any new trucks. I am thinking we are starting to get some inventory back on the lots.

 

I agree with you.

Living in SE Michigan with plenty of auto manufacturing plants around, I see all sorts of interesting things. It's also worthy to note that my biggest clients for the last 20+ years have been automotive, mostly GM, Ford, and Toyota.

There are several lots around here that are FULL of completed vehicles that can't get sold because they don't have chips. I suspect most of these are dealer stock orders. I could be wrong with that suspicion, but it would make no sense to manufacture a customer ordered vehicle that can't be delivered and sold. Again, I could well be wrong.

Interestingly, there are also several dealers here that upon receipt of stock, they advertise the truck, show MSRP, and then show a "market adjustment". This adjustment has been 10-15k above MSRP. I, like you, refuse to pay a premium over MSRP to line the pockets of a dealer. Market price adjustments at the manufacturer level are different. They're simply protecting margin whereas a dealer is simply raping the customer.

 

Speaking to the GM at my dealer last week, he indicated that the F-150s are arriving in significant quantities right now, but the SD's are only special order still.

 

Oddly enough, I looked at my dealership and they had 2 Super Duties listed as "coming soon". One of the window stickers showed STOCK orders, not retail or special order. So I wonder if Ford is finally able to push in some stock orders. Of course, it is gone now so I can't verify what I thought i saw.

 

No, not here. My local dealer has 9 Commercial Chassis trucks (8 F-350 & 1 F-550) and no Super Duty pickups.

 

I just drove from Kalispell MT thru SLC, Vegas, Phoenix, Tuscan and Lubbock.
Lots are still 80% empty of Super duties all the way down and I would guess those sitting in the parking areas off the front of the lot are "Sold" vehicles, or in for service.

 

I'd say lack of delivery truck drivers more than additional inventory. Took two weeks to get my truck our of Mira Loma, CA.

 

Local dealer has one 2021 regular cab XL 6.2 2wd they want 53K for.

 

Same here. My dealer has 2 stock SD's (blue window stickers) arriving soon - F-250 & F-350.

 

Got real lucky and found a F250 in stock at a large dealer outside of Charlotte. They had received 2 stock orders the night before. When I got there at 9:30am one had already sold. Dealt with commercial sales manager. He indicated that they did not expect things to get better until mid year, if then.

 

Dealers around me are getting bolder with the market adjustments over 15k for super dutys if they actually have one and most don't. I found where all the f450 chasis cabs ended up though