Just a little something I worked on tonight, to see how things worked out. Feel free to fact check the numbers. Maybe I didn't get something correct. Or if you would add something to the equation.
Since the gas engine has no upfront cost if going with gas, I used the cost for upgrade of the gears (430s)
I used 5 yrs of ownership as I thought maybe most would want to run a extended warranty after the factory warranty for the diesel.

Changing the following fields changes the outcome of all other cells.
B2, (years to own)
D1, (Miles per year)
B10, (Price per Gal - gas)
B14, (Price per Gal - diesel)
D10, (Avg Mpg - gas)
D14 (Avg Mpg - diesel)

.

 

Thats a really neat way to look at it! Fuel cost here in town is 2.15 for 87e and 2.61 for diesel. Price difference seems close to the same for us both.

 

 

I like spreadsheets. I think it looks accurate but yes there should be an allowance for increased maintenance costs. The cost to own is not the cost of the option it’s the purchase price minus the sales price. I just sold my 270k 02 diesel for $9200 in a couple of days. A gasser would be what $3000? I don’t know the cost of diesel in 2002 but but even at today’s upgrade of $9000 the diesel upgrade cost $2800.

 

 

The diesel upgrade pretty much comes back in full when you sell so it is not a fair comparison to charge the $9k upgrade.

example, I just NADA'd my 15.

clean retail on gas is $52,700
clean retail on diesel was $61,200



this was identical optioned truck, just the gas or diesel.

so yes, more cost in fuel price wise, more maintenance yet more power, more mpg and higher resale value.

 

Diesel is 20 to 25% higher here day in and day out; pretty much negating and difference in fuel costs.

 

If you felt like tweaking your spreadsheet you could reasonably modify the $8995 up-front cost for the diesel. Most of us pay sales tax on the truck, so you could add something for that. Where I live that would add $675. Additionally, most of the diesel equipped trucks also include the rapid supplemental heat ($250) and the block heater ($90). On the other side of the equation, since you’re using a 5 year window you have to assume that the diesel upgrade has some residual value. A starting point would be 50% residual value. Therefore the cost of the $8995 engine is $4500 (depreciation) plus the opportunity cost of having the the other $4500 unavailable for 5 years. You might use an expectation of 7% market return therefore the cost of the diesel is $4500+315+250+90+$675=$5830.

I love the torque of a turbo diesel, but my usage pattern (90% unloaded) coupled with the potential for emissions drama made the 6.2/4.30 combination a better fit for me.

 

Good looking and fairly accurate data within I'd say. Gas just makes sense to most.

Yes you could add in the higher maintenance and then the higher resale value of the diesel.

I'm not sure too many {here} have paid the $9K extra thinking they'd get it back in mileage. Maybe some, and especially if you drive a lot of miles I guess, but then there's the guy who has to have the diesel (and I'd be one of dem-dare idiots).

Heck, if I didn't travel long distances and with a heavy load behind me, I'd have a 6.2 gasser for sure!

 

What about bad luck cost?

Gas long block is $8000 installed. Diesel is what? 2.5 times that? Fuel system repairs? Then we have $1000-2000 loss of productivity (or "opportunity cost") per day, every time the truck sees the dealer. Civvy guys burn $3000 ("opportunity cost") for every vacation screw up. (20 dives and hotel in Key Largo is $1600, non-refundable) Then you factor in that some areas have good Ford techs and dealers, and many don't.

Small potato savings don't dent the big picture around my neck of the woods. Little SRW trucks get the gasser, big DRW's get the diesel, seems to be the common denominator on our effective spread sheets. It's still darn good info though. Thanks.

Things might swing a bit when fuel prices climb back up to $4.50+ The more overloaded SRW gasser trucks getting pushed to their limits might end up replaced by diesels. My '15 is pretty much maxed out and abused daily, other than being slower than the 6.7, no complaints.

 

Regular unleaded here is $2.29 and diesel is $2.89.

 

Diesel makes no sense financially unless you need the pulling power. It might make sense if you have money and simply want it.

Here's my quick assessment, based upon the OP's average fuel economy figures for gas and diesel:


As you can see, the diesel costs $1017 more to run and that is if there are zero other repairs. It also doesn't include additional DEF used between oil changes or any additives the diesel might need.
Trying to argue a financial reason for diesel is fruitless. Forget resale value. Even if you got 100% of your diesel engine option cost back at resale (which you totally don't) the chart above reveals you still lose at minimum $1000 over 100k miles. That's small potatoes for the improved driving experience over that period of time in my book, though. The downside is that you have to worry about fuel contamination causing a quick non-warranty $10k repair, or some other major repair happening out of warranty on the engine...which can be drastically expensive on a diesel.
Lots of people on here like to cite how the old diesels have much better resale value than an old gas truck. True. But it does not apply at all to these "modern" (2011+) trucks. Two things have happened...diesels have become less reliable, with less life expectancy, and much higher expected costs as the truck ages to maintain emissions equipment and related components. Deleting is not an option for everyone, and illegal regardless of who does it. The other factor is that gas engines have gotten better...longer lived, more power, and more reliable than ever. A 6.2L is a much better engine for towing than a 5.4L V8, that's for sure.

 

Not to mention, the diesel guys keep their trucks longer, than the average suburban daddy with a gasser that trades up every 5 years to keep up with the Jones's.

So I'd be suspicious of a newer used diesel on the lot with low miles. So the used value drops further as more and more people feel the same way. Can't say for sure with Fords, because the new trucks have changed the game a bit. Older than '16 trucks are dropping value.

 

 

I don't know. The #'s game was daunting. I just went in knowing what I wanted, and what payments I was OK with. There's too much fine print and BS on the sticker.

$38,000 for a CCSB XL 4x4 Fx4, with power interior group and Elocker seemed fair. Can't even get a decent Colorado for that. Similar diesels were $44-46k OTD at the time.