Bio Fuel Reality Check - finally

[mrxlh]

Wolf, I said that 4 years ago here, I think the quote was "Did you really think that when Big Oil runs out of oil that they will just cease to exist? They will find something else to sell us."

[FARM69]

Originally Posted by mrxlh

Wolf, I said that 4 years ago here, I think the quote was "Did you really think that when Big Oil runs out of oil that they will just cease to exist? They will find something else to sell us."

I agree. Also, there are foreign company's buying ethanol plants too. I know there is a group from Australia that has bought a couple of them. It makes me wonder why they are interested in it.

[Phydeaux88]

Originally Posted by FARM69

I sure hope they don't move away from corn ethanol anytime soon. The midwest would go into a serious depression.

If the use of corn to produce ethanol continues driving the price of everything up, as it has done recently, and the cost of ethanol production does not come down to make it competitive with gasoline then it wont make any difference the entire country will end up in a depression. Should that happen people will simply stop buying the more expensive ethanol anyway.

I do not know the economics of corn production but it is hard to believe farmers would have continued raising it for the past 100 years if they were unable to make at least a modest profit. The current demand for corn reflects a sudden increase in demand for a limited resource, market forces will eventually react and bring things back to balance the current shortages situation will not persist for long. Either supply will increase, driving the price down, or demand will decrease, also driving the price down. If supply increases it may well be from foriegn sources and the American farmer will lose.

The answer to the dilema is for farmers to put idle land into production of relatively cheap to produce crops like switch grass and camelina for fuel production while continuing to produce corn for food. In that way they can maintain the old market while establishing a brand new one. It will simultaneously allow them to withdraw land from govt programs that pay them not to produce, thus positively impacting the Fed budget and reducing pressure to raise taxes.

In answer to your immediate concern, the process I layed out will take years to put in place mostly because of the thousands of flex fueled vehicles already on the road. It doesnt really matter what alternative we finally end up with but the use of ethanol for fuel is very problematic and not economically viable for the long term. The ethanol boom will end.
Biodiesel is much more viable, it is more environmentally friendly, less expensive to produce, and yeilds approx 8 units of fuel for every unit consumed in its production. Ethanol has a negative yeild of fuel units. A farmer looking down stream a few years should seriously consider raising oilseed crops.

BTW Farm69 check out this thread on essentially the same topic.
http://www.ford-trucks.com/forums/71...ml#post5814620

[FARM69]

Good Call Phy. It actually costs the government more for people to raise crops then let the ground idle. Thats the problem. Everybody is plowing up non-sustable ground to plant corn.

Corn is not what I'm worried about. It's the soybeans. The reason why grain prices have been so cheap for so long is because of the government subsidizing. Before the ethanol boom, the price of corn has been relatively the same since the 1970's. This brings up the whole topic of why small farms are fading out. They don't gross enough to get the gov money unlike the large acre farms.

Canola is a good crop. Unfortunetly is only does well in the northern regions. The cornbelt is too far south.

In any case, whatever happens, its gonna be quite a few years before it does.

[tazo]

[quote=FARM69]Good Call Phy. It actually costs the government more for people to raise crops then let the ground idle. Thats the problem. Everybody is plowing up non-sustable ground to plant corn.

Corn is not what I'm worried about. It's the soybeans.

Why are you worried about the soybeans?

[FARM69]

Because the price of soybeans is outrageous right now. They are dozens of more uses for soybeans than corn. The fate of corn is fairly simple. Most of it goes to fructose corn syrup and livestock feed. The remainder goes to ethanol. Nowadays, it pretty much the ratio is exactly in thirds.

Plus, the price of soy oil directly effects biodiesel.

I do quite a bit of hedging and so fourth on the markets. That's my profession I suppose. Something has to give, and seeing beans (any grain) raise day after day is going to kill our economy. It's getting to the point where I don't even have to sit infront of the DTN anymore.

I don't know the gov pays for CRP ground anymore, but I do know that it costs more to raise corn than it does maintain CRP.

[JORYLEE76]

[quote=tazo]

Originally Posted by scatgo

I would like to know too. I do know that there is some kind of program in California for fleet vehicles using bio. I believe the state gives a tax break. But you need to buy at least 400 gallons and need proof. I also thought that home brewing bio was not legal here. It was my understanding that you need to be certified. Correct me if I am wrong.

It veries from state to state as to what bennifits you get. I know you can get tax discounts or credits here in washington state. you need to look up your local state laws and find out exactly what you can get from it. if nothing else, from my research, I have found that if i was making bio fuel for personal use... I would be able to make it for 1/3 the cost per gallon compaired to dino-diesel. that in its self makes it cost efective for me.

granted I dont have the ability to do that right now (i rent not own a home), but as time passes and i get my own place. my cars and trucks will all be diesel. any generator i get for personal use will be diesel.. so on and so forth.... in the long run by making my own bio for these things and using the bi-product of making my own bio-fuel.. such as making soap for personal use... I will save even more money. not to mention you can use the bi-product around your yard, for farming, animals and so on...

I see it to be a benifet to me as a private maker of bio and not having to depend on dino. i trully cant wait to be free of dino diesel.

JoryLee

[jenkins2]

Algae ponds? gotta have a water source there. Just a thought.

[zhilton]

Originally Posted by jenkins2

Algae ponds? gotta have a water source there. Just a thought.

But does it have to be fresh, drinkable water? Or can it be water from a waste treatment (sewage) plant? I'd like to know more about algae based bio-diesel....there are allot of places in this country that could benefit if waste water could be used for the algae.

[FARM69]

Originally Posted by zhilton

But does it have to be fresh, drinkable water? Or can it be water from a waste treatment (sewage) plant? I'd like to know more about algae based bio-diesel....there are allot of places in this country that could benefit if waste water could be used for the algae.

Thats a good question. Anybody know what type of water they can use for this production? I know that most treatment plants release cleaner water back into the system than what would be normally found.

[JORYLEE76]

I think its funny how this thread started out to be a negative post about bio-fuel and now its all about the good stuff that bio is. it seems to me that between corn, soy, veggie, and algee... there is alot of good things coming from bio production. I really like the sound of using waste water to make algee then turn it into bio then use the "mush" left over for even more good stuff. One way or another.. It just sounds to me that BIO-FUEL all the way around is better then dino any day of the week. guess we need to start getting rid of all the gassers out there


keep up all the great info out there. one thing i was wondering about... has anyone out there actually bought stock in anything to do with bio?? if so maybe we should start a thread about that... just a thought. thanks
JoryLee

[JORYLEE76]

Originally Posted by zhilton

But does it have to be fresh, drinkable water? Or can it be water from a waste treatment (sewage) plant? I'd like to know more about algae based bio-diesel....there are allot of places in this country that could benefit if waste water could be used for the algae.

check out post # 12 in this thread and check the link.. that will answer your questions i think.. enjoy

JoryLee

[zhilton]

Originally Posted by JORYLEE76

check out post # 12 in this thread and check the link.. that will answer your questions i think.. enjoy

JoryLee

Not only did it answer my questions...but it appears I wasn't the only one with an idea like that. The city I live in is roughly 80-85k folks, we have two waste water treatment plants...there is two good sources of raw nutrients for the algae. Following the hypothetical line of thinking...spreading the algae bio-diesel production around; I could see medium to large municipalities partnering with oil companies to use the waste water for algae production. I don't think it would work really well for our friends up north year around (Salt Lake City-Denver-KC-St.Louis and northward) but it would help them possible off-set expenses related to solid waste disposal. Maybe I'm thinking out side the box and plans like this won't come into play, but it sure makes allot of sense in my mind.

Going back to the comment about how this thread has evolded, that ain't no joke....but it's nice to see what can come of a discussion when well all keep it clean and simi-professional.

[Phydeaux88]

Originally Posted by jenkins2

Algae ponds? gotta have a water source there. Just a thought.

There are 3 readily available sources that will not impact pottable water supplies.
1. For marine algae species seawater works well.
2. For freshwater species the post treatment outflow of city sewage plants will do the trick.
3. The un drinkable heavily laced with sulpher well water found in many places will also do.

For the folks in Utah near the Grealt salt lake or the folks in S. Cal near the Salton Sea Water from those sources diluted with water from sewage plants or unpottable well water would allow growth of Marine species.

[Phydeaux88]

Farm69
What I said about corn holds true for soybeans.

Those guys planting corn on poorly suited land,because ofthe price should look at camelina closely. It seems to be a broadcast and harvest crop, tilling the ground, fertilizing, etc are not only unnecessary but actually seem to adversly affect the yield.
I have read several papers/articles on it that claim the best method is to simply broadcast seed on a stubble field in the fall then harvest next spring/summer.

One of our forum members, Fabmandelux,is very much a BD production expert. He also farms in Washington state. He has a Camelina test crop in the ground at this time.